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News article19 June 2023Joint Research Centre

Difficult start to summer negatively affects yield outlook

According to the June 2023 issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, the weather observed between 1 May and 12 June 2023 was once again marked by strong contrasts, with negative impacts on crop yield expectations in several regions.

Crops in northern regions initially benefited from the sunny and dry conditions since mid-May. Now rain is urgently needed.
© RT Ayabe

The negative impact is particularly strong for spring barley, for which the yield forecast at EU level was revised downward by 4% at EU level, to 11% below the 5-year average.

For other crops, the yield forecast at EU level remains close to the 5-year average.

crop yield expectations

Rain in the Iberian Pensiula arrived too late for spring and winter crops

The map below reflects the most distinct weather-related impacts on crops that occurred after the reporting period of the May edition of the Bulletin (14 May). Since then, drought conditions ended in most parts of the Iberian Peninsula. However, the recent rains arrived too late for spring and winter crops.

Areas of concern winter and summer crops

Prolonged rain deficit raises concerns in northern regions

Sunny and dry conditions in large parts of north-western, northern and northern-central Europe resulted in rapid depletion of soil moisture reserves, negatively affecting the yield potential of winter, spring, and summer crops. Rain is urgently needed to avoid further deterioration.

Distinct rain surplus and/or cold temperatures negatively affect crops in several regions in the south

A distinct rainfall surplus in large parts of Italy, Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia, resulted in waterlogged conditions, flooded areas and increased pest pressure, with negative impact (total losses in flooded areas) on winter crops.

In the Danube River valley in northern Bulgaria and southern Romania, cold temperatures caused delays to sowing and the early emergence of summer crops.

Special section on rice in Europe

This issue of the Bulletin features a special section on rice in Europe

Further information

JRC MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) Bulletins


The latest information about global agricultural production hotspots for countries at risk of food insecurity is available on the JRC’s ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production).


Publication date
19 June 2023
Joint Research Centre
JRC portfolios
Sustainable food systems