Low cereal yields expected in parts of East Africa, Central and South Asia and Central America

Main findings of the September global overview:

• In Southern Africa, towards the end of the winter cropping season, positive production prospects are reported for wheat in both South Africa and Zimbabwe. In October, the region will begin preparations for 2023/2024 summer crop planting. However, dry conditions associated with El Niño are expected to negatively impact the 2023/2024 agricultural season. It will be crucial to monitor the situation in the coming weeks.
• In Eastern Africa, close to harvest time for the main season crops, some areas received low rainfall in the month of August linked to the intensification of the El Niño phenomenon. Below-average crop production in northern parts of the region would further exacerbate the current difficult food security situation, particularly in Sudan and parts of Ethiopia. A high probability of enhanced rains during the October-December rainy season (ICPAC and Copernicus C3S Multimodel forecast) could hamper harvesting in the unimodal areas still to be harvested.
• In West and Central Africa, seasonal rainfall has been mostly average to above-average, over most of the region. However, as of mid-September a rainfall deficit continued to affect southern Mali, eastern Guinea, north-eastern Nigeria, south-eastern Mauritania and south-western Cameroon. According to PREGEC, cereals production is forecast close to average except in Guinea Bissau, Niger, Nigeria and Chad where a decrease is expected.
• In the Middle East, harvest of irrigated summer crops is under way, with mixed prospects: favourable in northern Syria, poor in Iraq and mixed for rice in Iran. In Yemen, harvest of sorghum and wheat is underway with mixed prospects. Food insecurity in the country continues to affect 17 out of 30 million people.
• In Central Asia, harvest of spring cereals and summer crops was completed in September, and prospects are mixed: below average in Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, average in Tajikistan and above average in Uzbekistan. Prospects for spring wheat are below average in northern Kazakhstan (Severo and Akmolin) and mixed in Afghanistan. In South Asia, harvest of summer (Kharif) crops has started in Pakistan with average prospects, while production of wet season (Aman) rice in Bangladesh is expected to be above average.
• In continental South-East Asia and the Philippines, harvest of main season rice has started, and prospects are average to above average. In Indonesia, harvest of dry season rice is under way with close-to-average prospects. In North Korea, harvest of rice and maize is under way with favourable prospects.
• In Latin America and Caribbean islands, average to above-average harvests are expected. In Honduras and Guatemala, primera cycle harvest prospects are average overall; however, poor to very poor vegetation conditions are observed in some parts. Good rainfall conditions and a positive rainfall forecast imply normal development of ongoing sowing campaigns in Haiti, El Salvador, Haiti, Peru and to a lesser degree Guatemala. Conditions are less favourable in Nicaragua, Honduras and Colombia.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of October 2023.