Brussels and Ispra, 17 June 2024
We asked Andrea Toreti, lead drought scientist at the Joint Research Centre, some key questions about droughts in Europe: how they relate to floods, how best to tackle them, and where gaps in drought research lay.
To add a policy perspective, we invited Lukas Repa, senior policy officer at the Directorate-General (DG) for Environment, to share his views too.
Let’s start with the question everyone is asking: what is the current drought situation in Europe?
Andrea: I should first say that, overall, drought conditions in Europe this year have been better compared to the last few years. Our latest drought analysis based on mid-May data showed that southern Europe, especially the western Mediterranean, is facing severe and persistent drought impacting vegetation and crops. At the same time, Eastern and Northern Europe have been experiencing a lack of precipitation in the last month. Conversely, abundant precipitation — well above the normal conditions — has been recorded in large regions of central Europe.
Drought forecast over the summer
The summer solstice is around the corner. Previous summers have challenged many countries in Europe in terms of water management. Looking at the weather forecast for the coming weeks, what can be expected in terms of drought impacts and the need to set restrictions?
Andrea: The latest seasonal forecasts for the coming 3 months predict average rainfall in most of Europe, except for large regions in southern Europe, where drier than usual conditions are expected. Temperatures are expected to be much higher than average in almost all areas, and heatwaves may cause increased evaporation and vegetation stress. Monitoring and planned use of water resources is recommended.
And just when the EU is preparing for the warm season and expecting more droughts and wildfires, floods have severely hit Germany in late May. What happened there? Can we anticipate that these flooded areas will be less likely to suffer from drought over the coming weeks?
Andrea: Intense rainfall over a short period caused the floods in Germany, leading to rivers and streams overflowing and causing widespread damage. Our sister project — the on-demand mapping component of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service together with the European Flood Awareness System — helped to monitor the situation. As for the effect of the floods, it is usually short-term. As the summer starts/continues and the expected warm temperatures accumulate, the risk of drought can increase again, especially if rainfall is low. Therefore, floods do not eliminate the potential for future droughts.
Responding and adapting to drought
And what role do government policies play in managing drought risks? Is science enough if data isn’t considered?
Lukas: Governments have an important role to play, as legislators, regulators and innovation catalysts. Climate adaptation requires a joint effort across many sectors using water. We all must use water more carefully and protect this finite resource that nature shares with us.
Governments play an important role here to ensure that rivers, lakes and groundwaters are not polluted, that abstractions do not exceed what is sustainable in the long term, and that water conveyance and treatment infrastructures are up to the latest standards to avoid wasting water.
It is always better to prepare than to react on the spot to a drought-caused emergency. That is why it is important that governments and their partner stakeholders adopt drought management plans and deploy transparent water allocation systems.
But droughts are complex. They don’t stop at borders and require many actors to agree on what to do, how to best do it, and when. How can EU/international cooperation be improved to address transboundary drought risk?
Andrea: Cooperation is essential to reduce drought risk and enhance resilience. Drought is a global threat with impacts that can propagate far from the region where they occur. At EU level, the Commission has established the working group on water scarcity and drought to share knowledge, good practices and boost communication. At international level, this year is going to be an important one with the High Level Meeting on Drought Resilience and the UNCCD COP16.
Lukas: Droughts strike entire regions; they don’t stop at country borders. European Member States share many transboundary rivers, and abstractions of water in one country have impacts in other regions, too. This is why the Commission has been encouraging Member States to establish integrated water management plans jointly, and to keep one another informed. The Albufeira Convention between Spain and Portugal or the integrated river basin management along the Rhine and Danube rivers are such good practices.
How targeted/specific should drought actions be? Can there be a single strategy to tackle droughts in the EU? What actions should be taken to reduce drought risk?
Andrea: Drought actions should be across spatial scales and sectors, and at different governance levels. There is no one-fit-all solution and local conditions should be always considered. Overall, drought actions can build on: an increasing awareness on the hazard and its consequences, enhanced cooperation, sustainable and effective use of water resources, reducing water competitions and concomitant water demand peaks, re-using water and advanced early warning systems.
Lukas: Drought risk management is about operating a comprehensive set of measures to safeguard supply in the absence of precipitation. To do so, demand must be adjusted to meet supply, bearing climate change in mind. Depending on each region, a different mix of measures may be most cost effective to reach this goal. Take the Algarve’s 2020 Water Efficiency Plan. With support from the EU Recovery and Resilience Fund, this region has built Portugal’s first mainland desalinisation plant to increase water supply. More funding was used, though, to save water. Upgraded waste-water treatment will allow the Algarve to reclaim more wastewater for irrigating municipal parks, golf courses and farms. The water supply network is being digitised along the coast to detect and mend leaks. An awareness campaign encourages tourists to save water.
Taken together, these measures are part of a comprehensive drought management strategy that helps the Algarve become more resilient to droughts. A different emphasis may be necessary in more Northern European Member States like Belgium or the Netherlands, where an emphasis will instead be on nature-based solutions to retain more rainwater in groundwater aquifers.
Should EU countries start growing more heat-resistant and less water demanding crops to avoid lower crop yields?
Andrea: As temperatures rise across the globe and in Europe and droughts become more frequent and severe, sustainable adaptation in EU countries should include growing crop varieties that can handle heat better and need less water, while keeping similar yield performance. Doing so can help farmers get more stable yields even when the weather is hot and dry. The use of optimised water management and sustainable farming practices complemented by sectoral climate services can make a big difference in dealing with climate change and extremes
Desalinisation plants are often mentioned as a solution to the problem of water scarcity in coastal areas. Are they a good solution?
Andrea: They can represent a solution when coupled with renewable energy production and when their environmental impact is properly minimised. They should be always implemented with policies and practices enhancing a sustainable use of water resources.
Lukas: Desalinisation plants have become very important for water security in Member States like Cyprus, Spain and Portugal. The EU qualifies investments in desalinisation as a “green” investment provided they are part of an integrated river basin management plan and that no other supply measures are available to guarantee security of supply. It will be important to ensure that desalinisation plants operate with renewable energy to reduce the footprint of desalinating sea water. Also, the brine must be discharged only in areas of the sea where harm to fauna and flora is unlikely.
Drought research
What recent advances in drought research are you most excited about?
Andrea: Recent advances building on artificial intelligence methods and tools are very promising. They help deal with big amounts of data derived by increasing resolution and many different data sources such as satellite, ground weather station, and process-based models. Take a look at the Destination Earth project and you’ll see the potential that lies behind AI, weather forecasting and disaster risk management.
What gaps still exist in our understanding of droughts that need further research?
Andrea: Drought is a highly complex hazard that affects socio-economic and natural systems in both the short and long term. Identifying and understanding when it begins, as well as its spatial and temporal evolution, is still a difficult task. Future challenges include the timely detection and prediction of drought events and associated impacts as well as the development of multi-sectoral drought risk approaches. Addressing these challenges will require more efficient and effective integrated modeling of water resources and the water cycle. That’s what we’re working on at the Joint Research Centre!