Macroeconomic monitoring, fiscal surveillance, forecasting and nowcasting
JRC provides scientific support to European Commission policy process and decision-making in relation to the broad area of the macroeconomic and fiscal surveillance. This is achieved by developing, simulating and estimating the macro-economic models GM (Global Multi-country model) and QUEST III. These models are jointly developed with and used by DG ECFIN for its macroeconomic policy assessments in the context of the European Semester.
The JRC also provides Euro Area Macroeconomic Real-time Monitoring with its Nowcasting.
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QUEST is a macroeconomic model to analyse and understand the state of the EU economy. QUEST III supports questions related to policy formulation, implementation and evaluation. Many of the main applications deal with fiscal and monetary policy interactions.
The GM model belongs to the class of New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models that are now widely used by international institutions and central banks.
Nowcasting methods use real-time data, including big data, to quickly identify changes in GDP and other important indicators. Activities are mainly related to GDP real-time monitoring, Inflation forecasting, nowcasting regional economic activity
The output gap is one main ingredient in the calculation of the cyclically-adjusted budget balance of the EU Member States. GAP program download is provided.
Description and download links of several software packages developed by the Joint Research Centre, dedicated to macro-econometric and statistical analysis.