JRC develops a wide range of macro-econometric models, to support the European Commission in the broad area of the macroeconomic monitoring and fiscal surveillance. The JRC's research is published in technical reports and academic journals and regularly informs policy making.
- The JRC and DG ECFIN jointly develop the macro-economic model GM (Global Multi-country model), that is used for the macroeconomic monitoring and forecasting in the context of the European Semester. The JRC also contributed to the estimation of different versions of DG ECFIN’s QUEST III model.
- The JRC develops the Output GAP program, implementing the output gap calculation method (EUCAM).
- The JRC also provides Euro Area Macroeconomic Real-time Monitoring with its Nowcasting.
Read more about our work
The GM model is jointly developed by the JRC and DG ECFIN, and it is used for macroeconomic surveillance, monitoring, forecasting, and research.
Nowcasting methods use real-time data, including big data, to quickly identify changes in GDP and other important indicators. Activities are mainly related to GDP real-time monitoring, inflation forecasting, nowcasting regional economic activity
The output gap is one main ingredient in the calculation of the cyclically-adjusted budget balance of the EU Member States which is used to monitor fiscal imbalances in Member States.
QUEST is the global macroeconomic model that the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) uses for macroeconomic policy analysis and research.
Available downloads of several JRC-developed software packages dedicated to econometric and statistical analysis.
Check all the events (coming and past) organised by the Macroeconomic monitoring and fiscal surveillance team.
The team behind the research
Beatrice Pataracchia is an Economic and Policy Analyst at the Economic and Financial Resilience Unit, where she coordinates activities on macroeconomic and fiscal surveillance.
Marco Ratto is senior scientist and leads macro-economic modelling at the Joint Research Centre.
Luca Onorante leads the JRC project on Econometrics, Big Data and Machine Learning applied to Nowcasting and Forecasting.
Jan Teresiński is an Economic and Policy Analyst with expertise in macroeconomic modelling,. He works on maintenance and development of the Global Multi-country (GM) model that is used for the macroeconomic monitoring and forecasting.
Adrian Ifrim is an economist within the unit Economic and Financial Resilience, where he is part of the macroeconomic modelling team.
Luigi is an applied econometrician specialized in macroeconometrics and time series analysis.
Contacts
Further information can be obtained from:
- Global Multi-country Model: Marco [dot] RATTO
ec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Marco Ratto) and Beatrice [dot] PATARACCHIAec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Beatrice Pataracchia) - Nowcasting: Luca [dot] ONORANTEec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Luca Onorante)
- QUEST: Marco [dot] RATTOec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Marco Ratto)(estimated versions of QUEST)
- Econometric software: GLUEWIN (Marco [dot] RATTOec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Marco Ratto)), BUSY (alessandro [dot] rossi1ec [dot] europa [dot] eu (subject: Download%20the%20GAP%20software) (Alessandro Rossi) and christophe [dot] planasec [dot] europa [dot] eu (subject: Download%20the%20GAP%20software) (Christophe )christophe [dot] planasec [dot] europa [dot] eu (subject: Download%20the%20GAP%20software) (Planas))
