The downward revision of the yield forecasts for grain maize (-2%) and sunflowers (-5%) at EU level is mainly due to a worsened outlook for summer crops in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece.
The yield forecasts for other summer crops, were revised slightly upward at EU level, which is mainly due to the favourably warm first half of autumn combined with adequate soil moisture conditions in the northern half of Europe.
Exceptionally warm first half of autumn benefitted crops in the north ...
In most parts of Europe, the first half of autumn was the warmest or one of the warmest in the JRC MARS records (since 1991). In most regions, particularly in the northern half of Europe, the very mild temperatures, combined with adequate soil moisture conditions and high levels of sunshine, provided favourable conditions for continued growth, ripening and harvesting of summer crops, as well as for field preparations and sowing of winter crops.
… but worsened conditions in south-eastern Europe
However, temperatures in the south reached much higher levels. In significant parts of Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Greece, rainfall also ranked among the lowest in our records; and the yield forecasts of grain maize and sunflowers were revised downwards considering the compound negative impacts of unfavourable conditions in these regions.
In the same regions, as well as in Slovenia, Croatia and parts of Ukraine, hard and dry soil conditions negatively affected the sowing and emergence of winter crops, particularly rapeseed.
Persistent rainfall hampers sowing in Estonia and Finland
In contrast, sowing and emergence of winter crops in Estonia and Finland was hampered by persistent excessive wet conditions.
The latest information about global agricultural production hotspots for countries at risk of food insecurity is available on the JRC’s ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production)
- Publication date
- 23 October 2023
- Joint Research Centre
- JRC portfolios
- Sustainable food systems