Major drought in parts of North Africa and the Middle East

Main findings of the March global overview:

1. In southern Africa, although rainfall conditions have improved in the region since January, and some recovery of cropland and rangeland conditions is observed, the impact of drought on crop and rangeland conditions is still evident in central and southern Malawi, some central and northern parts of Mozambique western and southern Zambia. The harvesting of main-season cereal crops is expected to start in April and, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Crop Prospects and Food Situation – Triannual global report (March 2025), 2025 cereal production is expected to reach near-average levels.
2. In East Africa, planting activities are under way; however, there are concerns about low crop production next season, as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre regional rainfall forecast for April to June shows drier-than-usual conditions in south-eastern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, South Sudan and parts of western Uganda. Acute food insecurity remains alarmingly high across the region, with nearly 38 million people across six IGAD member states – Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda – in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification phase 3 or worse.
3. In West and central Africa, with the onset of seasonal rains in March, land preparation and sowing activities for the first maize season have started in the southern bimodal parts of the region, along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea. Rainfall conditions were average in March across the region. In Sahelian countries, planting activities are expected to start in April in southern areas. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast for April–May 2025 indicates average rainfall in most parts of the region, except for the south-western part, where drier-than-average conditions are forecast.
4. In the Middle East, dry conditions since the start of the season have resulted in mixed levels of biomass for winter cereals: very poor in northern Iraq and Syria, average to above-average in central and southern Iraq and below-average in most of Iran (except Khuzestan and north-western Iran). Similarly, in North Africa, prospects for winter cereals are mixed: very poor in west Algeria and Morocco, below average in the central south and south-east of Algeria and favourable in the north-east of Algeria and in Tunisia. Wetter-than-average conditions are forecast for April for both regions (C3S multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast); however, it is unlikely that winter cereals will recover from their poor start to the season in west Algeria and Morocco.
5. In central Asia, winter wheat and barley are breaking dormancy with close-to-average biomass. The availability of irrigation water will be key for the growth of winter cereals, as below-average rainfall is forecast until June across most areas. In Afghanistan, winter wheat conditions are close to or above average, except in the north-west and part of the north. The planting of spring wheat has started and moisture conditions are forecast to be below average in April and May. In South Asia, the harvesting of rabi crops (irrigated winter wheat and barley) has started in Pakistan, while in Bangladesh the harvesting of boro rice should start in April; in both countries, prospects are favourable. In Sri Lanka, the harvesting of main-season maha rice and maize is coming to an end with close-to-average prospects.
6. In Latin America and the Caribbean islands, conditions vary. In Central America, the apante cycle is ready for harvesting with favourable prospects overall. Similarly, in Cuba and Haiti, harvests are ongoing or about to start, with favourable prospects. In Bolivia, Colombia and Peru, good harvests are expected in most areas, except for areas affected by rainfall deficits or with reduced areas sown. In Ecuador, heavy rains are reported to have caused damage to crops and livestock.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of April 2025.