Counterfactual impact evaluation - European Commission
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Counterfactual impact evaluation

Counterfactual impact evaluation provides essential insights into whether policy objectives were met and on the causal effects of policy. These aspects are essential for evaluating effectiveness and efficiency of policy.

CIE in its simplest form

CIE - Counterfactual impact evaluation, compares the outcomes of individuals participating in a programme or firms/regions subject to a specific regulation (the treated group) with the outcomes of a comparison group, similar in all respects to the treated one but for participation in the programme (the comparison or control group).

The comparison group helps to address the following question: what would have happened to the treated individuals (or firms/regions) had they not participated in the programme?

This is known as the counterfactual case.

© European Commission

Why do we need counterfactual impact evaluation?

One basic goal of an evaluation is to learn to what degree the policy objectives were achieved.

CIE is the best tool for establishing a causal link between policies and their effects, by relying on data available for both the treated and the control groups. By comparing these two groups, CIE allows for a deeper understanding of the true impact of the intervention, helping to isolate the effects directly attributable to the policy or program. 

In this way, CIE contributes to better policy design and more informed decision-making, making it an indispensable tool for policymakers and evaluators alike.

© European Commission

Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME)

CIE is one of the key services provided by the Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME) to support evidence-based policymaking in the European Commission.

CC-ME was launched on 19 May 2016. It supports the evaluation function in the European Commission.

Specifically, it:

  • Contributes to better EU regulation and spending through evaluation and data-driven microeconomic analysis of EU policies
  • Provides causal evidence on which policy measures work in different areas including social, industrial and environmental policies
  • Advises EU institutions and Member States on the use of good quality impact evaluations
  • Brings together researchers, policymakers and other experts in the field of impact evaluation
  • Builds capacity among policymakers on impact evaluation.