The methodology of the JRC PESETA II project has been implemented in three steps, following that of PESETA (see Ciscar et al., 2011). In the first stage the climate runs used as input to all biophysical models are selected. In a second stage, the biophysical impact models are run to compute the biophysical impacts.
In a third step, those impacts are valued and integrated in economic terms using a computable general equilibrium model. Analysis of tipping points was also undertaken due to the importance of this issue. However, this was limited to the scoping stage
Where possible, the analysis uses multiple climate models to account for the spread of temperature and precipitation estimates between climate models.
Two central estimates, the Reference and 2°C scenarios, are reported for all sectors (see the page of climate change runs). Biophysical analysis has been undertaken for the following categories:
- Forest fires
- River floods
- Tree species habitat suitability
- Demand for energy
- Transport infrastructure
- Human health
- Sea level rise (coast)
- Tipping points
Economic analysis has also been undertaken for nine of these categories through the use of a multi-country general equilibrium model. This allows the various sectoral biophysical impacts to be compared under a consistent and harmonised economic setup.
This is a major advantage as it enables comparison of otherwise very heterogeneous climate impact indicators. Furthermore, the comparison allows a first assessment of where climate impacts could be more severe (given variation across regions and plausible climate scenarios), thereby providing insights into where adaptation funds could be prioritised.
The results are presented dividing the EU into the following regions, according to their latitude and relative economic size, as in PESETA:
- Northern Europe: Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Denmark.
- UK & Ireland: UK and Ireland.
- Central Europe North: Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, and Poland.
- Central Europe South: France, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, and Romania.
- Southern Europe: Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria.
All reported impacts assume that there is no public adaptation, unless otherwise stated. Therefore, the methodology can be useful to understand where to prioritise adaptation options.
Ciscar J-C (ed.), 2014.
Climate Impacts in Europe, The JRC PESETA II Project. JRC Scientific and Policy Reports, European Commission Joint Research Centre
Ciscar J-C, Iglesias A, Feyen L, Szabo L, Van Regemorter D, Amelung B, Nicholls R, Watkiss P, Christensen O, Dankers R, Garrote L, Goodess C, Hunt A, Moreno A, Richards J, Soria A, 2011.
Physical and Economic Consequences of Climate Change in Europe. PNAS, 108 7 pp.2678-2683.