With 3°C global warming, river flood damage in the EU and UK in 2100 would be six times larger than current losses, reaching €48 billion/year, and nearly 0.5 million people would be exposed to flooding annually (compared to 170,000 now). The economic impacts could be halved, and the number of people exposed reduced by 230,000, if global warming is limited to 1.5C.
Adaptation strategies could further reduce future flood impacts significantly, in a cost-effective manner, and have co-benefits. For example, reducing river flood peaks by installing retention reservoirs would reduce river flood damage in 2100 by nearly 40 €billion/year and also improve ecosystem quality.
Figure: The main outcomes of four adaptation strategies considered in PESETA IV. Results are averaged at the EU and UK level and calculated considering future socioeconomic conditions (2100 economy) under 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C global warming scenarios.