Long-term care needs in the EU on the rise, due to demographic change

On European Demography Day on 4 February 2024, JRC studies highlight the importance of addressing health and long-term care needs in the context of an ageing European population.

The European Demography Day provides an opportunity to reflect on the challenges and opportunities arising from the shifting demographic landscape in Europe.

With the ongoing ageing of the European population, the demand for health and long-term care is projected to increase significantly, posing challenges for the adequacy and sustainability of health and care systems.

Long-term care refers to a range of services and support provided to individuals who depend on it for everyday activities due to illness, disability, or the effects of ageing.

In this context, the JRC's latest research provides valuable insights into the potential implications of demographic change on health and long-term care needs.

A recently published report reveals that by 2070, the share of people with long-term care needs is expected to increase from 11.6% in 2020 to 14.1% in 2070. This represents 21% more people in the age group 50+ in need of long-term care needs in 2070 with respect to the level in 2020

In parallel, the latest estimates from the European Cancer Information System point to a significant increase of the cancer burden in EU-27 due to projected demographic changes by 2040, especially among the population aged 65 and older.

The number of new cancer cases and cancer-related deaths in the older population is estimated to rise by approximately 31% and 35% respectively, due to population ageing only.

This trend is occurring despite advancements in cancer treatments and efforts to promote healthy ageing. It is mostly driven by the growing number of older individuals in the population.

These findings underscore the critical link between demographic change and long-term care needs, highlighting the need for targeted interventions and policies to address this growing societal challenge.

The JRC's work supports the implementation of the European Care Strategy, which aims to ensure quality, affordable and accessible care services across the European Union and improve the situation for both care receivers and the people caring for them, professionally or informally.

Moreover, the JRC's research responds to the European Commission's Communication “Demographic change in Europe: a toolbox for action” and the Council Recommendation on access to affordable, high-quality long-term care. It underlines the critical need to anticipate and address imbalances in the supply of the health and long-term care workforce and to build a 'longevity society' that values longer lifetimes spent in older age.

Adapting our policies to face an ageing EU population

Proactive policies focusing on the availability of long-term care services are essential to address the projected increase in demand. This includes:

• improving efficiency in the provision of long-term care,
• extending home and community-based care services,
• increasing financial resources for the health and social care sectors,
• expanding the long-term care workforce as well as pro-active labour market policies.

The reports also stress the importance of active ageing policies aiming to maintain independence and autonomy for as long as possible. Such policies can help reduce the onset of long-term care needs and should be integral to future policy frameworks.

Additionally, education plays a pivotal role in reducing the likelihood of developing such needs, particularly at an older age. Therefore, policies aimed at increasing educational levels can have a far-reaching impact on reducing the likelihood of developing long-term care needs in older age.