Horizon Scanning: Spotting change for future-oriented policymaking

What if we could harness bioelectricity to boost plant growth or turn houseplants into - literal - power plants that produce electricity? How would our grid need to adapt? 

What would happen if Europe embraced deindustrialisation of its most energy-intensive and uncompetitive sectors? What would this do to our trade policies, our social fabric and the need for new skills? How would our cities be planned and built? 

These are just two of the signals of change recently identified in the EU's Horizon Scanning project - an early detection system in our foresight toolbox helping policymakers stay ahead of the curve and shape the EU's anticipatory approach to emerging societal challenges and technological advancements.

The ESPAS Horizon Scanning process is led by foresight experts in the JRC’s EU Policy Lab, with the help of 'scanners' from across EU institutions and international organisations. It helps EU policymakers to anticipate and tackle the ever-evolving challenges and opportunities Europe faces.  

By regularly and systematically 'scanning the horizon', we aim to identify not just risks, but also opportunities stemming from these 'signs of new'.  The signs are drawn from varied sources of information by our network of scanners. The next stage is to make sense of them via workshops, identifying potential emerging trends and so-called 'game-changers'. Finally, through our meaning-making sessions we try to understand the possible consequences and policy implications. These are detailed in our regular bulletins, the most recent of which has just been published.  

The results of our Horizon Scanning activities play an important role in shaping forward-looking EU policies and policymaking, boosting preparedness and resilience across the Union and its Member States. Horizon scanning is an excellent tool in the foresight toolbox to untangle the complex interplay between global, national, and local forces, trends, and processes, while anticipating the impact of technological and scientific advancements. These results are particularly vital for various parts of the policy and planning cycle, especially in forward planning, agenda setting, and broader foresight work.    

Latest signals 

This most recent edition of the Horizon Scanning bulletin has identified several key issues, including the ideological gender divide among youth, the possible use of bioelectricity for agriculture, the evolving concept of deindustrialisation, and the transformation of kinship structures. These signals of change are then used as a prompt for further exploration of the implications they may have in a number of domains. 

Take the evolving concept of deindustrialisation. Trends identified by our Horizon Scanning activities suggest a shift towards advanced manufacturing in industries that are more sustainable and less resource intensive. This transition could redefine Europe's industrial foundation, emphasising smart industry 4.0 and human-centric industry 5.0, which are characterised by distributed manufacturing, modularity, and a focus on services. The repercussions of these changes are multiple, affecting everything from GDP contributions to regional employment landscapes. 

Another trend showed that there is a growing ideological gender divide among youth, with young women leaning towards progressive views and young men trending towards conservatism. This divergence is increasingly apparent across different countries and issues, raising concerns over long-term societal cohesion and the shaping of political landscapes. 

One major signal of change is the evolution of kinship structures. As populations age and family sizes shrink, the roles of grandparents and great-grandparents are becoming more prominent, both in family dynamics and the workforce. This has implications for social policies, housing markets, and the structure of support networks. 

This is anticipatory governance at its finest, a practice that enables the EU to make informed decisions and adapt to change. By considering potential future developments, the EU is better equipped to create robust policies that safeguard its citizens and values.  

Do you want to be involved in Horizon Scanning?  

Our Horizon Scanning community has grown since the beginning of the project in 2022 reaching already over 350 members and we are always on the lookout for more, fresh perspectives. So, if you work for one of the EU institutions, agencies or bodies and are enthusiastic about spotting 'signs of new' – join our community of scanners. 

No special expertise is required to join our community, only an interest in futures thinking and a strong sense of curiosity. New scanners also receive a short on-boarding training. The strength of our Scanner community is the versatile knowledge and experience, which enables rich discussions around complex and systemic topics. The most common feedback from our Scanners is that being part of the Horizon Scanning process widens their thinking, gives them an opportunity to hear what is happening in other EU entities and inspires thinking about alternative futures.  

If you work in one of the EU institutions, agencies or bodies and are looking for a new challenge in the new year, be sure to get in touch by email JRC-HORIZONSCANec [dot] europa [dot] eu (JRC-HORIZONSCAN[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu) to join the Scanner community or reach out to learn more about the project.

Background

The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) is driving foresight and anticipatory governance across nine EU institutions and bodies. The ESPAS horizon scanning project aims to enhance existing early warning mechanisms and foster a community of experts who can identify and communicate emerging signals of change. Since its pilot in 2022, the project has proven its effectiveness, evolving into a regular activity supported by the EU Policy Lab thanks to their foresight and policy design activities.  

Related links

ESPAS Horizon Scanning  (ESPAS website) 

ESPAS Horizon Scanning (Knowledge for Policy website) 

EU Policy Lab