2025 needs to be a year of accelerated global climate action according to the newly published Global Climate and Energy Outlook (GECO) 2024. The report finds that the world’s largest economies - collectively known as the G20 - are not on track to meet the goal of limiting global warming to ‘well below’ 2°C by the end of the century.
This stands in contrast to the commitment of all Parties to the Paris Agreement to limiting the increase in global average temperatures by the end of the century to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Crucially, countries also committed to pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C to avoid the most extreme effects of climate change. The report indicates a significant ambition gap to achieve this global target.
The report explains that current national pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs) and long-term commitments are still insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C by 2100.
Global emissions will peak this decade, before starting to reduce, putting the world on course for a 2.6°C global average temperature rise by 2100 under currently enacted policies. However, if countries fully implement their NDC targets, this increase could be limited to 2.3°C, and following through on mid-century decarbonisation commitments could further reduce it to 1.8°C.
However, to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, the world needs to cut GHG emissions by 56% compared with 2022 levels by 2035, building up to a 90% reduction by 2050.
The urgency of meeting these NDC targets as soon as possible was laid bare by the recent Copernicus Climate Change Service report, which showed that 2024 was the warmest year in global temperature records going back to 1850, and the first calendar year with global average temperature anomalies reaching 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels.
Whilst average global temperatures fluctuate year to year, 2024 was not an outlier. Each of the past 10 years (2015–2024) was one of the 10 warmest years on record. This rapid increase in global temperatures has led to significant negative impacts across the world. For example, last year saw extreme weather events across the globe – including devastating wildfires in California and floods in Valencia – exacerbated by climate change.
There is still hope
To close the gap between international commitments and actual emissions, the report sets out emission levels for G20 economies to reach by 2035 to keep the 1.5°C ambition attainable. In this 1.5°C scenario, major changes are needed by 2035.
Each country must achieve at least 50% non-fossil electricity generation and ensure that electricity accounts for at least 35% of their total energy usage. Countries would also need to implement carbon capture and storage (CCS) to handle about 5-20% of industrial emissions, while maximising carbon absorption through land-use and forestry management.
The GECO 2024 provides detailed profiles of selected G20 economies, sector-specific emission trajectories and key performance indicators for the four main decarbonisation strategies. Employment impact assessments and detailed energy scenarios are also accessible, along with economic data showing global market interconnections.
Background
Published annually since 2015, the GECO reports are a source of global energy and emissions forecasts which help policy makers understand the action needed to meet our climate goals.
The EU is leading by example both at home and abroad with an ambitious 2030 target and NDC that shows the EU will honour its international commitments on climate action. The European Commission has recommended a target of 90% net greenhouse gas reduction by 2040 relative to 1990 levels.
Ambitious climate policies are leading to reductions in emissions, improvements in energy efficiency and increased clean energy supply, putting the EU on the right path towards becoming a climate-neutral continent by 2050.
Related links
Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2024
Copernicus climate change service: Global Climate Highlights 2024
Details
- Publication date
- 31 January 2025
- Author
- Joint Research Centre
- JRC portfolios
