Final reports and overview
Feyen, L., Ciscar, J.C., Gosling, S., Ibarreta, D., Soria, A., 2020. Climate change impacts and adaptation in Europe: JRC PESETA IV final report. Publications Office of the European Union.
Ciscar, J.-C., Rising, J., Kopp, R.E., Feyen, L., 2019. Assessing future climate change impacts in the EU and the USA: insights and lessons from two continental-scale projects. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 084010.
Ciscar, J.-C., Ibarreta, D., Soria, A., Dosio, A., Toreti, Ceglar, A., Fumagalli D., Dentener, F. Lecerf, R., Zucchini, A., Panarello, L., Niemeyer, S., Pérez-Domínguez, I., Fellmann, T., Kitous, A., Després, J., Christodoulou, A., Demirel, H., Alfieri, L., Dottori, F., Vousdoukas, M.I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Cammalleri, C., Barbosa, P., Micale, F., Vogt, J.V., Barredo, J.I., Caudullo, G., Mauri, A., de Rigo, D., Libertà, G., Houston Durrant T., Artés Vivancos, T., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Gosling, S.N., Zaherpour, J., De Roo, A., Bisselink, B., Bernhard, J., Bianchi, L., Rozsai, M., Szewczyk, W., Mongelli I., and Feyen L., 2018. Climate impacts in Europe: Final report of the JRC PESETA III project, EUR 29427 EN, Publications Office of the European Union.
Ciscar, J.-C., Feyen, L., Soria, A., Lavalle, C., Raes, F., Perry, M., Nemry, F., Demirel, H., Rozsai, M., Dosio, A., Donatelli, M., Srivastava, A., Fumagalli, D., Niemeyer, S., Shrestha, S., Ciaian, P., Himics, M., Van Doorslaer, B., Barrios, S., Ibáñez, N., Forzieri, G., Rojas, R., Bianchi, A., Dowling, P., Camia, A., Libertà, G., San Miguel, J., De Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Barredo, J.I., Paci, D., Pycroft, J., Saveyn, B., Van Regemorter, D., Revesz, T., Vandyck, T., Vrontisi, Z., Baranzelli, C., Vandecasteele, I., Batista e Silva, F., Ibarreta, D., 2014. Climate impacts in Europe: the JRC PESETA II project. Publications Office of the European Union.
Ciscar, J.-C., 2012. The impacts of climate change in Europe (the PESETA research project). Climatic Change 112, 1–6.
Ciscar, J.-C., Iglesias, A., Feyen, L., Szabó, L., Van Regemorter, D., Amelung, B., Nicholls, R., Watkiss, P., Christensen, O.B., Dankers, R., Garrote, L., Goodess, C.M., Hunt, A., Moreno, A., Richards, J., Soria, A., 2011. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 108, 2678–2683.
Ciscar, J.-C., Iglesias, A., Feyen, L., Goodness, C.M., Szabó, L., Christensen, O.B., Nicholls, R., Amelung, B., Watkiss, P., Bosello, F., Dankers, R., Garrote, L., Hunt, A., Horrocks, L., Moneo, M., Moreno, A., Pye, S., Quiroga, S., Van Regemorter, D., Richards, J., Roson, R., Soria, A., 2009. Climate change impacts in Europe: final report of the PESETA research project. Publications Office of the European Union.
Agriculture
Hristov, J., Toreti, A., Pérez Domínguez, I., Dentener, F., Fellmann, T., Elleby, C., Ceglar, A., Fumagalli, D., Niemeyer, S., Cerrani, I., Panarello, L., Bratu, M., 2020. Analysis of climate change impacts on EU agriculture by 2050: JRC PESETA IV project : Task 3. Publications Office of the European Union.
Pérez Domínguez, I., Fellmann, T., 2018. PESETA III: agro economic analysis of climate change impacts in Europe : final report. Publications Office of the European Union.
Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Quiroga, S., Moneo, M., 2012a. A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe. Climatic Change 112, 29–46.
Iglesias, A., Quiroga, S., Moneo, M., Garrote, L., 2012b. From climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies: Challenges for agriculture in Europe. Climatic Change 112, 143–168.
Iglesias, Ana, Garrote, Luis, Quiroga, Sonia, Moneo, Marta, M., 2009. Impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe: PESETA Agriculture study. Publications Office, LU.
Coastal floods
Mongelli, I., Vousdoukas, M., Feyen, L., Soria, A., Ciscar JC, 2023. Long-term impacts of coastal floods in Europe: a probabilistic analysis. Publications Office of the European Union.
Vousdoukas, M.I., Mentaschi, L., Hinkel, J., Ward, P.J., Mongelli, I., Ciscar, J.-C., Feyen, L. (2020). Economic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe. Nature Communications, 11 (1), art. no. 2119.
Vousdoukas, M.I., Mentaschi, L., Mongelli, I., Ciscar, J.C., Hinkel, J., Ward, P., Gosling, S., Feyen, L., 2020. Adapting to rising coastal flood risk in the EU under climate change: JRC PESETA IV project : Task 6. Publications Office of the European Union.
Vousdoukas, M.I., Feyen, L., Voukouvalas, E., Mentaschi, L., 2019. PESETA III, task 8: coastal impacts : JRC PESETA III project. Publications Office of the European Union.
Vousdoukas, M.I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Bianchi, A., Dottori, F., Feyen, L. (2018). Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe. Nature Climate Change, 8 (9), pp. 776-780.
Vousdoukas, M.I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., Feyen, L. (2017). Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts. Earth's Future, 5 (3), pp. 304-323.
Vousdoukas, M.I., Voukouvalas, E., Annunziato, A., Giardino, A., Feyen, L. (2016). Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe. Climate Dynamics, 47 (9-10), pp. 3171-3190.
Nicholls, R.J., Richard, J.A., 2009. Impacts of climate change in coastal systems in Europe: PESETA coastal systems study. Publications Office of the European Union.
Droughts and water resources
Naumann, G., Cammalleri, C., Mentaschi, L., Feyen, L. (2021). Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change, 11 (6), pp. 485-491.
Cammalleri, C., Naumann, G., Mentaschi, L., Bisselink, B., Gelati, E., De Roo, A., Feyen, L. (2020). Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24 (12), pp. 5919-5935.
Cammalleri, C., Naumann, G., Mentaschi, L., Formetta, G., Forzieri, G., Gosling, S., Bisselink, B., De Roo, A., Feyen, L., 2020. Global warming and drought impacts in the EU: JRC PESETA IV project : Task 7. Publications Office of the European Union.
Bisselink, B., Bernhard, J., Gelati, E., Adamovic, M., Guenther, S., Mentaschi, L., Feyen, L., De Roo, A., 2020. Climate change and Europe’s water resources. Publications Office of the European Union.
Cammalleri, C., Barbosa, P., Micale, F., Vogt, J.V., 2017. Climate change impacts and adaptation in Europe, focusing on extremes and adaptation until the 2030s: PESETA III : Task 9, Droughts : final sector report. Publications Office of the European Union.
Vogt, J., Naumann, G., Spinoni, J., 2016. Database of past European droughts and their impacts in different sectors: deliverable 1a AA 071201/2013/659821//CLIMA.C.3 – JRC 33371 2013 NFP "Deepening and refining existing analyses of key climate change impacts as well as global impacts and their implications for the EU (GAP PESETA)” : final report for DG CLIMA. Publications Office of the European Union.
Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., Rojas, R., Flörke, M., Wimmer, F., Bianchi, A. (2014). Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18 (1), pp. 85-108.
Economic impacts
Szewczyk, W., Feyen, L., Ciscar, J.C., Matei, A., Mulholland, E., Soria, A., 2020. Economic analysis of selected climate impacts: JRC PESETA IV project : Task 14. Publications Office of the European Union.
Mongelli, I., Ciscar, J.C., Soria, A., Szewczyk, W., 2018. JRC PESETA III project: economic integration and spillover analysis. Publications Office of the European Union. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/514048.
Bosello, F., Nicholls, R.J., Richards, J., Roson, R., Tol, R.S.J., 2012. Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise. Climatic Change 112, 63–81.
Ciscar, J.-C., Szabó, L., van Regemorter, D., Soria, A., 2012. The integration of PESETA sectoral economic impacts into the GEM-E3 Europe model: methodology and results. Climatic Change 112, 127–142.
Ecosystems
Forzieri, G., Girardello, M., Ceccherini, G., Spinoni, J., Feyen, L., Hartmann, H., Beck, P.S.A., Camps-Valls, G., Chirici, G., Mauri, A., Cescatti, A. (2021). Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests. Nature Communications, 12 (1), art. no. 1081.
Barredo, J. I., Mauri, A., Caudullo, G., 2020. Impacts of climate change in European mountains: Alpine tundra habitat loss and treeline shifts under future global warming : JRC PESETA IV project : Task 8. Publications Office of the European Union.
Barredo, José I., Mauri, A., Caudullo, G., 2020. Alpine Tundra Contraction under Future Warming Scenarios in Europe. Atmosphere 11(7), 698.
Forzieri, G., Girardello, M., Ceccherini, G., Mauri, A., Spinoni, J., Beck, P., Feyen, L., Cescatti, A., 2020. Vulnerability of European forests to natural disturbances: JRC PESETA IV project : Task 12. Publications Office of the European Union.
Barredo, J.I., Caudullo, G., Mauri, A., 2017. Mediterranean habitat loss under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change projections: assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network. Publications Office of the European Union.
Barredo, J.I., Caudullo, G., Dosio, A. (2016). Mediterranean habitat loss under future climate conditions: Assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network. Applied Geography, 75, pp. 83-92.
Energy
Després, J., Adamovic, M., 2020. Seasonal impacts of climate change on electricity production: JRC PESETA IV project : Task 4. Publications Office of the European Union.
Kitous, A., Després, J., 2018. Assessment of the impact of climate scenarios on residential energy demand for heating and cooling. Publications Office of the European Union.
Forest fires
Costa, H., De Rigo, D., Libertà, G., Houston Durrant, T., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2020. European wildfire danger and vulnerability in a changing climate: towards integrating risk dimensions : JRC PESETA IV project : Task 9 forest fires. Publications Office of the European Union.
De Rigo, D., Libertà, G., Houston Durrant, T., Artés Vivancos, T., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2017. Forest fire danger extremes in Europe under climate change: variability and uncertainty. Publications Office of the European Union.
Camia, A., Libertà, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2016. Modeling the impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in Europe: Sectorial results of the PESETA II Project. Publications Office of the European Union.
De Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Barredo, J.I., 2016. Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species. Publications Office of the European Union.
Labour productivity
Szewczyk, W., Mongelli, I., Ciscar, J.-C., 2021. Heat stress, labour productivity and adaptation in Europe—a regional and occupational analysis. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 105002.
Gosling, S.N., Zaherpour, J., Ibarreta, D., 2018. PESETA III: climate change impacts on labour productivity. Publications Office of the European Union.
Methodology
Dosio, A., 2020. Mean and extreme climate in Europe under 1.5, 2, and 3°C global warming: JRC PESETA IV project : Task 1. Publications Office of the European Union.
Dosio, A., 2018. PESETA III: task 1, climate change projections, bias adjustment, and selection of model runs. Publications Office of the European Union.
Rojas, R., Lavalle, C., Vandecasteele, I., Baranzelli, C., Batista e Silva, F., 2013. Implementation of the IPCC SRES Scenario A1B with the Land Use Modelling Platform: contribution to the JRC PESETA II project. Publications Office of the European Union.
Christensen, O.B., Goodess, C.M., Ciscar, J.-C., 2012. Methodological framework of the PESETA project on the impacts of climate change in Europe. Climatic Change 112, 7–28.
River floods
Dottori, F., Mentaschi, L., Bianchi, A., Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., 2023. Cost-effective adaptation strategies to rising river flood risk in Europe. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 196–202.
Jewson, S., Maynard, T., Dottori, F., 2023. A service to help insurers understand the financial impacts of changing flood risk in Europe, based on PESETA IV. Climate Services 30, 100395.
Dottori, F., Mentaschi, L., Bianchi, A., Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., 2020. Adapting to rising river flood risk in the EU under climate change: JRC PESETA IV project : Task 5. Publications Office of the European Union.
Feyen, L., Dottori, F., Alfieri, L., 2018. Task 7, River floods: JRC PESETA III project. Publications Office of the European Union.
Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., Dottori, F., Bianchi, A. (2015). Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 35, pp. 199-212.
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., Forzieri, G. (2015). Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19 (5), pp. 2247-2260.
Feyen, L., Dankers, R., Bódis, K., Salamon, P., Barredo, J.I., 2012. Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates. Climatic Change 112, 47–62.
Rojas, R., Feyen, L., Watkiss, P. (2013). Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation. Global Environmental Change, 23 (6), pp. 1737-1751.
Rojas, R., Feyen, L., Bianchi, A., Dosio, A. (2012). Assessment of future flood hazard in Europe using a large ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 117 (17), art. no. D17109.
Dankers, R., Feyen, L. (2009). Flood hazard in Europe in an ensemble of regional climate scenarios. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 114 (16), art. no. D16108.
Dankers, R., Feyen, L. (2008). Climate change impact on flood hazard in Europe: An assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 113 (19), art. no. D19105.
Temperature and human health
García-León, D., Masselot, P., Mistry, M.N., Gasparrini, A., Motta, C., Feyen, L., Ciscar, J.-C., 2024. Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study. The Lancet Public Health 9, e644–e653.
Naumann, G., Russo, S., Formetta, G., Ibarreta, D., Forzieri, G., Girardello, M., Feyen, L., 2020. Global warming and human impacts of heat and cold extremes in the EU: JRC PESETA IV project : Task 11. Publications Office of the European Union.
Paci, D., 2014. Human health impacts of climate change in Europe: report for the PESETA II project. Publications Office of the European Union.
Watkiss, P., Horrocks, L., Pye, S., Searl, A., Hunt, A., 2009. Impacts of climate change in human health in Europe : PESETA-Human health study. Publications Office of the European Union.
Watkiss, P., Hunt, A., 2012. Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of Europe based on bottom up analysis: human health. Climatic Change 112, 101–126.
Tourism
García-León, D., Matei, N.A., Batista e Silva, F., Barranco, R., Dosio, A., Ciscar, J.C., 2025 . European Tourism Demand in the Face of Climate Change: Asymmetric Impacts, Demand Reallocation, and Deseasonalisation Strategies. Environmental Research Letters 20, no. 2 (January 2025): 024043.
Matei, N.A., García-León, D., Dosio, A., Batista e Silva, F., Barranco, R., Císcar Martínez, J.C., 2023. Regional impact of climate change on European tourism demand. Publications Office of the European Union.
Ibañez Rivas, J.N., Barrios, S., 2013. Tourism demand, climatic conditions and transport costs: report for the PESETA II study on the impact of climate change in Europe. Publications Office of the European Union.
Amelung, B., Moreno, A., 2012. Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project. Climatic Change 112, 83–100.
Amelung, B., Moreno, A., 2009. Impacts of climate change in tourism in Europe: PESETA Tourism study. Publications Office of the European Union.
Transport
Mulholland, E., Feyen, L., 2021. Increased risk of extreme heat to European roads and railways with global warming. Climate Risk Management 34, 100365.
Demirel, H., Christodoulou, A., 2018. Impacts of climate change on transport: a focus on airports, seaports and inland waterways. Publications Office of the European Union.
Nemry, F., Demirel, H., 2012. Impacts of climate change on transport: a focus on road and rail transport infrastructures. Publications Office of the European Union.
Windstorms
Spinoni, J., Formetta, G., Mentaschi, L., Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., 2020. Global warming and windstorm impacts in the EU: JRC PESETA IV project : Task 13. Publications Office of the European Union.