A first pan-European assessment reveals that, even if current climate policies succeed in limiting the global temperature rise to 3°C, temperature-driven mortality may increase. Without additional adaptation measures, 55,000 additional deaths could occur annually by the end of this century. This 13.5% increase in temperature-related deaths stresses the cost of delaying climate action.
The results of the assessment also reveal disparities in temperature-related mortality across Europe, with cold-related deaths presently occurring 2.5 times more frequently in the east than in the west, and heat-related deaths being over six times more common in the south than in the north.
Notably, cold-related fatalities grossly outnumber heat-related ones: at present, the approximate ratio is 8.3 to 1. But as global warming unfolds, projections show a surge in heat-related deaths bringing this ratio to 2.6 versus 1 for a 4°C temperature rise.
The main driving factors of such a shift are twofold: climate and demographic changes.
Figure 2: Temperature-related deaths in Europe across five age groups, caused by cold (left) and heat (right). Death totals are calculated for current climate conditions (1991-2020, hence including the warming that already occurred so far) and four warming scenarios. Today’s totals are based on current (year 2020) population while warming levels results have been obtained using projected (year 2100) sociodemographic conditions.
The study, led and co-authored by JRC scientists, investigates present and projected future excess mortality caused by temperature change in 1,368 European regions across 30 countries: EU27, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK. It considers age-specific characteristics and local socio-economic and environmental vulnerabilities.
According to the study, the total mortality burden attributable to excessively hot or cold temperatures currently (baseline period 1991-2020) amounts to 407,000 deaths per year across Europe. Some 363,500 people die annually from cold, while 43,700 die from excessive heat.
In a 3°C warming scenario, projections show there could be a threefold increase in heat-related mortality with respect to today. While heat-related deaths would increase across all regions, southern European regions can be expected to suffer the greatest additional burden.
In the 3°C warming scenario, heat-related deaths in Greece would increase annually from 1,730 today to 4,767, in France from 3,061 to 13,564, in Italy from 10,433 to 28,285, and in Spain from 4,414 to 20,194, according to the study.
With a 3°C warming, the combined effects of climate and demographic changes may bring an additional 14.9 expected deaths per 100,000 people annually in Europe (from 98.7 for the period 1991-2020 to 113.6 in 2100). However, the impact varies greatly between regions, ranging from a decrease of 29 deaths in Latvia to an increase of 95 deaths in Malta.
The hotspots of heightened risk of heat-related mortality
Places with marginally greater susceptibility such as ageing, greater hazard increase due to warming, or a combination of the two are expected to result in a higher mortality risk in the short-term future.
By 2050, European hotspots will be primarily concentrated in the south, particularly in regions in Spain, Italy, and Greece, but will also concern a substantial part of France. Regions in eastern Europe will face intensified warming but the mortality risk related to heat will be mitigated by the projected substantial decline in total mortality.
In northern Europe, summers will be warmer, but not lethal. These regions will become more vulnerable to extreme heat due to ageing population.
The evidence can support policymakers and authorities to take action against unprecedented challenges to public health systems, particularly during periods of extreme heat and cold, by prioritising more vulnerable areas and communities.
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Details
- Publication date
- 22 August 2024
- Author
- Joint Research Centre
- JRC portfolios
