A three-step workshop model to support strategic thinking, productive dialogue and meaningful output can help policymakers explore 40 pre-identified risks and include additional ones to better understand and manage crises.
Designed by JRC scientists, the Polycrisis Exploration tool comes in times when unprecedented crises unfold at an alarming rate. From the reshaping of the geopolitical landscape, an onslaught of climate-induced disasters to disrupted supply chains, challenges for policy and decisionmakers abound.
Is a new era of “polycrisis” emerging?
Polycrisis is a term that captures the tangled web of simultaneous crises that feed into and amplify each other. The escalating climate crisis for example, with its loss of natural habitat and rising temperatures boosts the likelihood of more frequent extreme weather events and unstoppable sea level rise.
In a system that is already under stress, new crises could reduce the resilience of societies, challenge public health, and ripple through economies, widening social divides and triggering political tensions.
How to ensure decisions made today are still valid tomorrow?
One answer to this increasing complexity and constantly changing risk landscape is better preparedness and resilience – which is where strategic foresight comes into play. For EU policymakers, scientists and disaster risk managers, the polycrisis exploration tool provides a structured framework to increase awareness of existing and future risks, map potential polycrisis, and identify the most effective policy interventions.
The new tool is designed to complement traditional risk assessment methods, which often focus on isolated events. Instead, it brings a holistic understanding of interconnected risks, thus helping policymakers anticipate and prepare for potential future disasters and their cascading effects. The overarching goal is to boost EU preparedness efforts at all levels of governance.
The tool is a three-step workshop model, drawing on insights from the foresight report Risks on the Horizon which identified 40 future risks clustered in 10 categories. These range from better known ones such as critical raw materials dependencies, inequality or terrorism, to more surprising ones such as the loss of power for humans, failing critical infrastructure or the lack of consensus in society.
How does it work?
The workshop uses a polycrisis exploration approach and is structured in three main activities designed to:
- Enhance risk awareness: participants explore a wide range of risks, challenging assumptions and considering different perspectives. This activity builds a comprehensive understanding of potential future risks and implications for specific policy areas selecting the three risks with the highest perceived impact, but which are considered less known by participants.
- Map future polycrisis: participants are encouraged to imagine and map the impacts of selected risks as they transition to crises. This activity focuses on the interconnectedness of risks and their potential cascading effects, helping to uncover complex relationships and identify “hotspots” for further analysis.
- Identify policy interventions to improve preparedness for polycrisis: by examining the underlying drivers of crises, participants can brainstorm potential policy responses and solutions. This activity aims to develop novel ideas for impactful interventions and establish partnerships to mitigate negative consequences.
The workshop is highly adaptable to the needs of the participants, who can add ‘wildcard’ risks, which may not be included in the initial set of cards.
As is the case with many foresight-informed products, one of the key strengths of the polycrisis exploration approach is its ability to harness collective intelligence. By bringing together diverse participants, including policymakers, experts, and stakeholders, the workshop encourages out-of-the-box thinking and collaborative problem-solving.
This participatory approach not only enhances risk awareness but also helps to generate innovative solutions that are informed by a wide range of perspectives.
The half-day workshop serves as a valuable starting point for deeper analysis and long-term planning. The insights gained from the workshop can feed into further foresight projects, supporting strategic decision making and preparedness planning.
The polycrisis exploration tool aligns with the EU Preparedness Union's mission, which champions foresight as a critical preparedness instrument due to its ability to provide a long-term view of future developments and cascading risks. Although foresight is not about predicting the future, it helps to strengthen anticipatory governance by looking at possible futures with the aim of enhancing awareness and shaping a more desirable future.
Related content
Tool: Polycrisis Exploration Workshop
Press release: EU Preparedness Union Strategy
Details
- Publication date
- 26 March 2025
- Author
- Joint Research Centre
