Food crises: Gaza, Sudan conflicts drive record high number of people in Phase 5 (Catastrophe) since 2016

The Mid-Year update of the Global Report on Food Crises (GFRC) 2024, reveals that the number of people facing, or projected to face Catastrophe, an IPC/CH phase 5 classification identifying extreme food crisis at household level, is the highest since the first GFRC had provided a global assessment back in 2016. The JRC has contributed to the production of data and has provided technical and advisory support.

The 2024 update draws on data available as of the end of August 2024: it finds the number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity has been increasing since 2023 in 18 countries while decreasing in another 16. 

The situation continues to be very worrying as the number of people facing, or projected to face Catastrophe more than doubled, from 705,000 in five countries/territories in 2023 to 1.9 million in four countries/territories in 2024. These record numbers are driven by two major ongoing conflicts, in the Gaza Strip and in Sudan.

The Mid-Year Update of the GRFC presents the latest, concerning facts regarding the evolution of acute food insecurity in food crisis countries:

• Famine has been declared in the Zamzam refugee camp in Sudan and is expected to persist through October. Though the conflict situation has been worsening in many other areas of the country too, they continue to be classified as “risk of famine” because there is insufficient data to draw a more detailed conclusion on the situation. In total 25,6 million people in Sudan are estimated to face high levels of acute food insecurity, a 26% increase since last year.
• The Gaza Strip (Palestine) remains the most severe food crisis in the history of the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC), with almost all of the 2.2 million residents still in urgent need of food and livelihood assistance between March and April 2024. The severity of the crisis has intensified, with half of the population in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) during this period, up from a quarter in December 2023–February 2024. 
• Out of the 18 countries that have experienced a deterioration, Nigeria, Sudan, Myanmar, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Chad and Yemen each had at least 1 million more people facing high levels of acute food insecurity than during the 2023 peak. 
• Forced displacement in food crisis countries continues to increase with alarming levels in the Gaza Strip and Sudan. The Gaza Strip has the largest share of its population displaced, with nine out of 10 people internally displaced, some experiencing displacement up to 10 times. Sudan remains the world’s worst largest internal displacement crisis in terms of numbers with 10.7 million of internally displaced people (out of a 47 million population) by mid-2024 and with an increase of 1.9 million since the end of 2023.

Drivers of acute food insecurity

The mid-year update report identifies three main types of shock, that, when combined with a high proportion of vulnerable populations in food crisis countries, act as the main drivers of acute food insecurity. These shocks are conflict / insecurity, economic related shocks and weather extremes.

1. Conflict and insecurity: conflict continues to be the main driver of acute food insecurity, malnutrition and displacement, as we can see clearly in the Gaza Strip and Sudan, with increased hostilities limiting humanitarian access and assistance. Conflict is present, with different numbers of countries affected, in all the regions reported in the GRFC.
2. Economic factors, such as high domestic food prices, debt distress, and unsustainable public debt, contribute to worsening acute food insecurity conditions in some countries. However, the mid-year update also notes that food inflation has slowed in certain nations, which may explain the reduction in populations experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity.
3. Weather extremes: the mid-year update points to widespread drought and record high temperature as factors that have affected food production, particularly in Southern Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean regions. In East Africa the La Niña is expected to bring below-average rainfall for the October-December rainy season, whereas in Southern Africa the November 2024 to March 2025 lean season is expected to start earlier and be more severe than usual due to low 2024 production.

JRC support to data analysis and intelligence

The mid-year update of the Global Report on Food Crisis 2024 relies on data from multi-partner initiatives like the Integrated food security Phase Classification (IPC), the Cadre Harmonisé (CH) and other equivalent metrics. The JRC plays a crucial role in contributing to the production of these data, in providing technical and advisory support to the IPC and the CH frameworks as well as in the Senior Committee responsible for its endorsement. 

Additionally, the JRC’s Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) offers real-time information feeding into IPC and CH analysis.

About the Global Network against Food Crises

Launched by the European Union, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) in 2016, the Global Network against Food Crises (GNAFC) seeks to better connect, integrate, and guide existing initiatives, partnerships, programmes and policy processes to address the root causes of food crises. 

Since the launch of the first Global Report on Food Crises in 2016 initiated by the JRC, the EU’s contribution is based on close coordination among Commission’s services – mainly the Directorates-General for International Partnerships, European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations and the JRC – as well as other partners. Over the last seven years the Global Report on Food Crisis has evolved into one of the main multi-partner initiatives under the Global Network against Food Crises and serves as its flagship publication. 

The Global Report on Food Crises 2024 and its Mid-Year Update is the result of a joint, consensus-based assessment of food crisis worldwide by 16 partner organisations, coordinated by the Food Security Information Network (FSIN). 

Related content

Global Report on Food Crises – Mid-Year Update 2024

Global Network against Food Crises 

Food Security Information Network

Resources from the Knowledge Centre for Global Food and Nutrition Security

• Scientific brief on Food security and food crisis
• Knowledge Review on the impact of Russia’s war on global food security
• Selection of key publications on Food Security and Food Crises

Anomaly hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP)

JRC report 2016: Global analysis of food and nutrition security situation in food crisis hotspots (2016)