Rainfall deficit forecast in parts of East and North Africa, Middle East and Central Asia

Main findings of the October global overview:

1. In southern Africa, land preparation and the planting of summer crops has started in some parts of the region. The Copernicus rainfall forecast for November 2024 to January 2025 points to average to above-average rainfall for most parts of the region, except for most parts of Angola and Namibia, and western and eastern Botswana, where drier-than-average conditions are forecast. The harvesting of winter wheat is nearing completion and production prospects are average for South Africa and Zambia and above average for Zimbabwe.
2. In East Africa, crop prospects are positive at harvesting time for the Meher season in Ethiopia and for the long rainy season in Kenya. However, Gu-season production was significantly below-average in Somalia and crop production prospects are below-average in South Sudan. In war-torn Sudan, abundant rainfall has led to widespread flooding, but there is also potential for a positive impact on agriculture, if the ongoing conflict does not prevent access, inputs and security. The above-average rainfall in the last few months across the Horn of Africa has benefited rangeland conditions and increased water availability. In bimodal areas of the region (e.g. southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and Somalia), the rainfall onset is delayed by nearly a month and seasonal weather forecasts from different sources point to a high probability of below-average rainfall. 
3. In West and central Africa, the main season is coming to an end and according to the Prevention and Management of Food Crises mechanism, in September 2024, cereal production forecasts were between 68.5 million tonnes (9 % above the 5-year average) and 80 million tonnes (12 % above the 5-year average), without including production in Liberia and Senegal. Pastoral conditions are generally good across the region and positive livestock production is expected; however, pasture development is below average in southern Chad, southern Côte d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, the middle belt of Nigeria and Sierra Leone.
4. In the Middle East, the sowing of winter wheat and barley is underway under average conditions. The rice harvest is nearing completion (in northern Iran) or is about to start (in southern Iraq and parts of Iran), with favourable production prospects. In North Africa, the sowing of winter wheat and barley has started in Algeria and Tunisia under mixed moisture conditions (close to average in Algeria and drier than average in north-eastern Tunisia) and is about to start in Morocco under forecast below average rainfall. According to the C3S multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast, moisture conditions are expected to be below average in the whole MENA region in the coming four months.
5. In central Asia, the harvest of spring wheat and summer crops is close to completion under favourable conditions, as illustrated by Kazakhstan spring wheat production forecast at 39% above the five-year average (JRC MARS bulletin). In the region, the sowing of winter wheat and barley has started under close-to-average conditions. In Afghanistan, the sowing of winter wheat has started under close-to-average conditions, but a rainfall deficit is forecast in the coming months. In South Asia, harvesting of kharif crops is underway in Pakistan, with favourable prospects. In Bangladesh, the harvesting of aman rice will start in November and prospects are average to above average. In Sri Lanka, planting of main-season maha rice and maize has started in the east under close-to-average moisture conditions in the last month.
6. South-East Asiais no longer monitored by ASAP analysts. In eastern Asia, the ASAP team continues to monitor only North Korea, where the maize and rice harvests finalised in October with good prospects thanks to above-average crop biomass driven by good rainfall since July. If specifically requested, an ad hoc analysis can be conducted for any country in the region (please contact us by email: JRC-ASAPec [dot] europa [dot] eu (JRC-ASAP[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu)).
7. In Latin America and the Caribbean islands, the harvest is ongoing in Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti and Peru under favourable conditions. Crops in the sowing and vegetation stages in Bolivia, Colombia and Peru are developing as usual, except for key producing departments such as San Martin in Peru, and Valle del Cauca and Tolima in Colombia, where rainfall deficits are causing delays. The harvesting of primera cycle crops is concluding, with favourable prospects in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. In Guatemala, however, large areas in the central and eastern parts of the country show poor vegetation activity. The progress of the postrera cycle is showing mixed results, with poor vegetation activity in western El Salvador and in eastern and central Guatemala, and average conditions elsewhere.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of November 2024.