Low cereal production outlook at harvest time in Southern Africa threatens food security in the region

Main findings of the May global overview:

1. The main agricultural season is ending in southern Africa, with poor harvests across most countries in the region. Preliminary estimates from the Climate Hazards Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s FEWS NET indicate that the regional 2024 summer cereal harvest will be around 28.2 million tons, 14 % lower than the 5-year average and 24 % lower than the 2023 harvest (according to the Southern Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update). Poor rangeland conditions are also affecting the region, particularly in Namibia, northern Botswana, most parts of Zambia and northern Zimbabwe.
2. Large parts of East Africa continued to experience abundant rainfall in May, and this has benefited crop production in all areas between April and June. It has also led to the restoration of rangelands after the long drought experienced in 2022 and 2023. Major floods affected Kenya and Tanzania in April. Below-average rainfall was observed in the Ethiopian Highlands and in parts of South Sudan and Uganda. Levels of acute food insecurity remain high in the region, despite some improvements in, for example, Kenya and Somalia.
3. In North Africa, record low yields are forecast for Morocco according to the JRC pre-operational country-level yield forecasting model based on ML, with wheat and barley yields expected to be 42 and 46% below their respective 5-year average. Central and eastern Algeria and Tunisia have experienced better rainfall conditions since December 2023, leading to close-to-average crop yield expectations.
4. In West and central Africa, first-season maize crop conditions are generally favourable in the southern bimodal parts of the region. A slight delay in the planting season has been observed in the Middle Belt states of Nigeria, northern Ghana, northern Benin, southern Chad, Guinea and Togo. The Copernicus C3S’s multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast for June–July 2024 indicates average or above-average rainfall in most parts of the region, except western Mali, northern Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mauritania, Senegal, Togo and most of Benin.
5. In the Middle East, the harvest of winter cereals is under way in Iraq and Syria under very favourable conditions, except in the south of Iraq. In Iran, the harvest will start in June, and prospects are good at the national level. In Yemen, the harvest of irrigated wheat was completed in the central highlands, with good prospects. Moisture conditions are favourable for sorghum early growth in the coastal areas and the central highlands.
6. In central Asia, prospects for winter cereals, to be harvested in June, are average in Turkmenistan and above average in all other countries of the region. Conditions are favourable for the early growth of spring wheat and barley in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. In Afghanistan, the harvest of winter cereals started in May, with average or above-average prospects except in the north-west. In South Asia, the harvest of irrigated rabi crops in Pakistan and dry-season boro rice in Bangladesh is complete or about to be, with good prospects. The planting of kharif crops has started in Pakistan under average conditions, while the planting of aman rice in Bangladesh is likely to be delayed. In Sri Lanka, the planting of second-season yala rice and maize was completed in May under drier-than-normal conditions, particularly in the north.
7. South-East Asiais no longer monitored by ASAP analysts. In East Asia, the ASAP team continues to monitor only North Korea, where the rice and maize season is starting under favourable conditions. If specifically requested, an ad hoc analysis can be conduced (please contact us by email: Jrc-asapec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Jrc-asap[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu)).
8. In Latin America and the Caribbean islands, a poor harvest of maize and sorghum is expected in Bolivia (the department of Santa Cruz, where around 75 % of total grain production originates, will be particularly affected, according to ASAP’s graph showing the share of national cereal production by subnational units). However, in Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador and Peru, ongoing harvests are favourable. The main food crop cycles have started in the region under average conditions; however, a delay in the establishment of the main rice season has been observed in south and south-west Cuba. Delays are also observed in the primera cycles (maize and beans) in Guatemala and Honduras. In Nicaragua, localised delays may be occurring in the Atlántico Norte department.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of June 2024.