What is strategic foresight?
Strategic foresight is a systematic and collaborative way of analysing different possible futures. In the Commission, we use it to take smarter, future-oriented policy decisions: we look at possible developments that could affect EU policies, through knowledge and imagination.
Foresight plays a key role in managing change by helping to map, understand, anticipate and ultimately influence change.
Foresight is not crystal ball that allows us to predict the future. Rather foresight provides a set of tools and methods for exploring the future, so we are more comfortable with the uncertainty of the future and able to adapt t it.
Why use foresight in policymaking?
Strategic foresight equips European leaders and policymakers with a structured framework to transform insights about the future into actionable knowledge. It provides a safe space to gather collective intelligence, exchange ideas, come up with alternative scenarios and new insights for policymaking. Based on these thought-provoking exercises, as the Commission, we are better equipped to make decisions aligned with Europe’s political priorities, that respect the interests of present and future generations and help prepare for possible future crises.
Strategic foresight applies across all policies and the entire policymaking cycle, from identifying emerging issues to evaluating impact. Supporting the principles of Better Regulation, strategic foresight can ensure that policy decisions are well informed on long-term possibilities, allowing them to stand the test of time.
EU Policy Lab
The EU Policy Lab is a space for cross-disciplinary exploration and innovation in policymaking. We apply collaborative, systemic and forward-looking approaches to help bringing the scientific knowledge of the Joint Research Centre into EU policymaking.
We apply collaborative, systemic and forward-looking approaches to bring the scientific knowledge of the JRC into EU policymaking.
We experiment with the new, the unprecedented and the unknown. We seek to augment our understanding of the present, challenge and reinvent the way we think about the future.
The EU Policy Lab is a mindset and a way of working together that combines stories and data, anticipation and analysis, imagination and action. We bring new practical and radical perspectives to tackle complex problems in a collaborative way. Together, we explore, connect and ideate to create better policies.
How do we do foresight?
Detecting and analysing the emerging ‘game changers’ that could impact society and policymaking in the future
Long-term driving forces that are observable now and will most likely have significant influence on the future
Plausible versions of the future providing a forward-looking framework for use in policymaking
Learning how to prepare and plan for, as well as interact with different futures
Teaching and simulation tool to experience your possible paths towards the future, in relation to a certain topic.
Tools for organising participative processes that support decision-making, explore systemic topics and encourage long-term thinking.
Flagship reports
Strategic Foresight Reports
The European Commission regularly produces Strategic Foresight Report, which inform the Commission Work Programmes and multi-annual programming exercises.
Risks on the Horizon
This study presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create.
FUTURINNOV
This project supports the European Innovation Council (EIC) in building strategic intelligence capacity through foresight and other anticipatory approaches.
Digital transition: Long-term implications for EU farmers and rural communities
This foresight exercise explores the interplay between digital transition, policies and the resilience of the agricultural sector and rural areas, against the backdrop of potential disruptive and transformative changes.