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The Central scenario was developed using the POTEnCIA model, in order to describe the evolution of the EU energy system until 2050 under the assumption that no further policies and measures were introduced after 2017. The results show that both the energy and the carbon intensity of the European economy would remain on a declining path in the Central scenario setup, but would miss mid-century targets. This projected evolution is driven by the continued impact of policies that are already in place in combination with technology progress, as well as by structural changes and the development of the prices of fossil fuels and CO2 allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. The earlier EU target to reduce GHG emissions by at least 40% from 1990 levels in 2030 would not be met under the assumptions of the scenario, confirming the need for additional policies and measures.

The Central scenario was developed to serve as a reference point to which policy scenarios can be compared. It is the result of a transparent and iterative interactive exercise between the JRC, other Commission services, and Member States' national experts within the POTEnCIA modelling framework.

A report describing the scenario results can be downloaded from the JRC publication site.

Data access

The Central scenario results are made available through the JRC Data Catalogue.

Use conditions

The Central scenario results are intended to be used in-line with the reuse policy of the European Commission.

The license related information can be found at: