JRC PESETA V

Here are the results of the JRC PESETA V that have already been published. Project results datasets will be progressively published in the JRC Risk Data Hub and the Urban Data Platform

Overview of climate impacts 

(EU27; NUTS3 regions)

The regional resolution of climate risks makes the JRC PESETA V project highly relevant for EU regional policy. The first results of JRC PESETA V have already contributed to the regional climate impacts section (Chapter 4) of the 9^th Cohesion Report published in March 2024.  Figure 4.1 and Map 4.1 show the impact of climate change under a 2°C global warming scenario in NUTS 3 regions by 2050, in particular

• additional economic costs (they refer to the following climate impact areas: coastal floods, droughts, labour productivity, river floods, transport infrastructure, windstorms and energy demand)
• human exposure to harmful climate impacts (share of the population exposed to wind storms, coastal flooding, river flooding, water shortage and wildfire danger)
• human mortality from heat and cold
   

Air quality

The study analyses how different climate mitigation scenarios could affect air quality and health in Europe at the regional scale. The study uses a high-resolution modelling approach to assess the effects on health outcomes, including premature mortality, across 1366 regions in Europe. It considers 5 different scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), which represent a range of possible future emissions and climate mitigation pathways. 

The results show that there is a large variability in air quality and related mortality across regions of Europe, with some regions, such as those in Ireland, western and northern UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the Alps, having lower air quality-related death rates, while others, such as regions in Eastern Europe, especially in Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, and some regions in Poland, having higher air quality-related death rates. 

The most ambitious scenarios (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) can lead to significant reductions in air pollution-related premature deaths in Europe, with a 90% reduction in premature deaths by 2100 compared to 2015, and with the majority of regions showing a decrease in air quality-related death rates. In contrast, the less ambitious scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) result in much higher air pollution-related premature deaths, with some regions experiencing increases in air quality-related death rates. Integrated air quality and climate policies are necessary to achieve significant reductions in air pollution-related health impacts in Europe, with a particular focus on regions that are most vulnerable to air pollution.
 

Detailed information can be found in the paper, "High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenarios."

Droughts

The regional sectoral assessment of drought impacts in Europe under global warming estimates damages for 1366 administrative units across 27 EU countries, the UK, Norway, and Switzerland. The study combines drought hazard modelling with regional exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment, considering present climate conditions and various global warming levels in a number of impacted sectors (agriculture, energy, transport, water supply, and building and infrastructure). 

Regions in southern and south-eastern Europe will be increasingly impacted by droughts, with potential economic losses reaching up to 15% of the regional GDP in some areas, particularly in the agriculture sector. For the 2 degrees global warming scenario, the average overall economic losses are estimated to be around €13.0 billion, which corresponds to 0.08% of the EU's GDP and represents an increase of around €2 billion (+16 %) compared to baseline climate. The analysis further reveals significant variability in drought impacts within countries, driven by the region’s unique hydroclimate and economic profiles. This highlights the need for effective drought management strategies at the regional and sectoral level to mitigate the impacts of droughts in Europe.
 

Detailed information can be found in the paper, "Assessing the economic impact of droughts in Europe in a changing climate: A multi-sectoral analysis at regional scale."

Labour productivity 

(EU27 and the UK; NUTS2 regional results)

Labour exposure to heat stress driven by climate change will increase significantly with the rising global temperatures. Under heat stress, workers have to reduce work intensity and take longer breaks from work to prevent occupational illness and injuries. This study explores how the global warming and the resulting increase in heat stress can directly affect productivity of workers and indirectly impact upon the broader economy. Occupational statistics for 269 European regions are combined with daily heat stress indicator derived from a set of high-resolution climate scenarios.

The novel approach, enabled by using a set of published exposure-response functions, assesses workers productivity losses differentiated by occupations. A macro econometric model of the European economy is then used to asses implications of change in productivity in monetary terms.

The study finds that, compared to nowadays, productivity of labour can be 1.6% lower in Europe in 2080s, with a clear geographical gradient showing that southern and eastern regions are much more affected (e.g. up to 5.4% productivity loss in Greece). Furthermore, regions where the dominant occupations have relative lower earnings would also experience higher productivity loses. The analysis also focuses on the potential role of adaptation to reduce the productivity and economic losses, via air conditioning and a preliminary assessment of the potential of wearable robotics, which can reduce damages by 30%–40%.

Article "Heat stress, labour productivity and adaptation in Europe—a regional and occupational analysis" is available on IOPscience website, on Environmental Research Letters.

Temperature-related mortality 

(EU27 and Norway, Switzerland, and the UK; NUTS3 regions)

Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat-related morbidity and mortality, presenting unprecedented challenges to public health systems. This study models current and future mortality due to non-optimal temperatures across 1368 European regions, considering age-specific characteristics and local socioeconomic vulnerabilities. The results highlight regional disparities in temperature-related mortality across Europe. Between 1991 and 2020, the number of cold-related deaths was 2·5 times higher in eastern Europe than western Europe, and heat-related deaths were 6 times higher in southern Europe than in northern Europe. During the same time period, there were a median of 363 809 cold-related deaths (empirical 95% CI 362 493–365 310) and 43 729 heat-related deaths (39 880–45 921), with a cold-to-heat-related death ratio of 8·3:1. Under current climate policies, aligned with 3°C increase in global warming, it is estimated that temperature-related deaths could increase by 54 974 additional deaths (24 112–80 676) by 2100, driven by rising heat-related deaths and an ageing population, resulting in a cold-to-heat-related death ratio of 2·6:1. Climate change is also expected to widen disparities in regional mortality, particularly impacting southern regions of Europe as a result of a marked increase in heat-related deaths. 

This study shows that regional disparities in temperature-related mortality risk in Europe are substantial and will continue to increase due to the effects of climate change and an ageing population. The data presented can assist policy makers and health authorities in mitigating increasing health inequalities by prioritising the protection of more susceptible areas and older population groups. The study identifies the projected areas of heightened risk (southern Europe), where policy intervention aimed at building adaptation and enhancing resilience should be prioritised.

Related data (Standardised death rates (per 100,000 habitants) for NUTS3 regions) can be found here.

The article was published on in August 2024 in The Lancet Public Health
 

Tourism 

(EU27 and the UK; NUTS2 regions)

The tourism industry, a significant contributor to European GDP, may face considerable stress due to climate change. This study examines the potential impact of climate change on tourism demand in European regions in the 2100 time horizon. Using data from 269 European regions over a 20-year monthly timespan, we estimate the effect of current climatic conditions (rated with a Tourism Climatic Index, TCI), on tourism demand, considering various regional typologies. Our findings reveal that climate conditions significantly affect tourism demand, with coastal regions being the most impacted areas. Next, we simulate the impacts of future climate change on tourism demand for four warming levels (1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C) under two emissions pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find a clear north-south pattern in tourism demand changes, with northern regions benefitting from climate change and southern regions facing significant reductions in tourism demand; that pattern becomes more pronounced for higher warming scenarios. The seasonal distribution of tourism demand would also change, with relative reductions in summer and increases in the shoulder and winter seasons.

Transport infrastructure 

(Member States)

Changing climatic conditions pose a risk to existing transport infrastructures, generally built based on historic climate variations. When temperatures exceed built operating conditions, roads may require greater maintenance due to rutting, while railways are susceptible to buckling. We quantify the additional operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to railway and road infrastructures across the 27 Member States of the EU and the United Kingdom due to the projected rise in extreme heat for different levels of global warming. We integrate an ensemble of climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a high-resolution spatial representation of the rail and road network, and asset valuation and maintenance information derived from multi-country databases, with a road pavement damage model and a railway buckling simulation model. 

Under a 4°C scenario, increased levels of extreme heat in EU + UK cause annual transport O&M costs to rise by €4.8 billion, i.e. an overall 6.9% rise compared to current values. Mitigating emissions to comply with a 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C rise in global temperature limits the increase to €0.9 billion, €1.3 billion, and €2.8 billion, corresponding to O&M increases of 1.3%, 1.5%, 4.1% respectively. Depending on the value of the stock, replacement costs, and maintenance cycles in a country, the increase in risk can be much stronger. To pre-emptively limit risk, EU + UK road pavement construction standards and railway stress free temperatures should be updated to account for future changes in temperatures.

Article "Increased risk of extreme heat to European roads and railways with global warming" is available on the ScienceDirect website.