In times of 'big data', the growing availability of data is not matched by a corresponding ability to make sense of data.
The JRC is providing to Euratom safeguards and to the IAEA expertise and state-of-the art data analytics to support the need of inspectors, analysts and policy makers to make sense of data.
The JRC makes available data sets, processing techniques, and complete analytical products.
Data analytics for EURATOM safeguards
Euratom safeguards inspectors perform conformity checks on accountancy and physical verification of nuclear material. On-site inspection makes use of independent measurement systems.
The JRC is supporting Euratom through the development of analytical tools combining robust statistics and time series analysis to detect anomalies in the onsite measurements (e.g. structural breaks or outliers). This analysis is a different analytical angle compared to classical inspector tasks and it is expected to help improving the assessment results.
Data analytics for IAEA safeguards
The JRC is supporting IAEA trade analysts since several years. Co-designed trade data sources and analytical tools are important inputs to the IAEA’s State Evaluation Groups. For example, in 2022 the JRC developed a resource on the world trade of phosphates, because the extraction of uranium from phosphates is of concern to the IAEA against a background of past uses in undeclared activities
Data analytics for EU strategic export control
The JRC collects and analyses data on the implementation the EU Regulation for export control and contributes with it to the annual EC report to Council and Parliament. Dual-use and strategic trade controls are implemented by EU national authorities: the data collected and analysed by the JRC allow the EC and Member States to review the implementation of controls in an 'EU-level playing field'.
The JRC expertise in monitoring trade controls is also applied in the context of the monitoring of sanctions, where it is important for the Commission to estimate the effects of prohibitions before they are adopted and to assess the effects after adoption.
The Nuclear Trade Atlas
The Nuclear Trade Atlas is a book and a digital tool to help analyse trade flows related to nuclear activities. It is developed by the JRC in collaboration with US Department of Energy and it is based on data from the United Nations Statistical Division. An evaluation of the nuclear relevance for each of a series of items shows which countries are trading a given item (commodity‑based view) or which items are exchanged by a given country (country-based view).
JRC support to the World Customs Organisation
JRC support to the World Customs Organisation in their program for Strategic Trade Compliance Enforcement worldwide. For the WCO the JRC developed the Strategic Trade Atlas (and datasets) used for training and to prepare coordinated customs operations. The impact of this work is large due to the global scope of work of the WCO.
Future objectives
- Euratom Safeguards long-term strategy foresees an assessment of risk based on the results of past verification activities and the evaluation of confidence factors capturing limits and uncertainties encountered during the process. The JRC plans to enhance its data analytics capacity by scaling analytical tools and data infrastructure involving also the Data Mining Unit.
- In strategic trade analysis, the JRC will support DG TRADE implementation of new provisions on export license data transparency and the World Customs Organisation with trade data analytics and capacity building on the use of Nuclear Trade Atlas and the Strategic Trade Atlas for customs operation exercises.