Macroeconomic monitoring and fiscal surveillance

Macroeconomic monitoring, fiscal surveillance, forecasting and nowcasting

JRC develops a wide range of macro-econometric models, to support the European Commission in the broad area of the macroeconomic monitoring and fiscal surveillance. The JRC's research is published in technical reports and academic journals and regularly informs policy making.

The JRC and DG ECFIN jointly develop the macro-economic model GM (Global Multi-country model), that is used for the macroeconomic monitoring and forecasting in the context of the European Semester. The JRC also contributed to the estimation of different versions of DG ECFIN’s QUEST III model.
The JRC develops the Output GAP program, implementing the output gap calculation method (EUCAM).
The JRC also provides Euro Area Macroeconomic Real-time Monitoring with its Nowcasting.

Read more about our work

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Global Multi-country model (GM)

The GM model is jointly developed by the JRC and DG ECFIN, and it is used for macroeconomic surveillance, monitoring, forecasting, and research.

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Nowcasting

Nowcasting methods use real-time data, including big data, to quickly identify changes in GDP and other important indicators. Activities are mainly related to GDP real-time monitoring, inflation forecasting, nowcasting regional economic activity

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Output GAP - The program

The output gap is one main ingredient in the calculation of the cyclically-adjusted budget balance of the EU Member States.

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QUEST III

QUEST is the global macroeconomic model that the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) uses for macroeconomic policy analysis and research.

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Econometric software - download page

Available downloads of several JRC-developed software packages dedicated to econometric and statistical analysis.

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Upcoming and past events

Check all the events (coming and past) organised by the Macroeconomic monitoring and fiscal surveillance team.

Contacts

Further information can be obtained from:

Global Multi-country Model: Marco [dot] RATTOec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Marco Ratto) and Beatrice [dot] PATARACCHIAec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Beatrice Pataracchia)
Nowcasting: Luca [dot] ONORANTEec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Luca Onorante)
QUEST: Marco [dot] RATTOec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Marco Ratto)(estimated versions of QUEST)
Econometric software: GLUEWIN (Marco [dot] RATTOec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Marco Ratto)), BUSY (alessandro [dot] rossi1ec [dot] europa [dot] eu (subject: Download%20the%20GAP%20software) (Alessandro Rossi) and christophe [dot] planasec [dot] europa [dot] eu (subject: Download%20the%20GAP%20software) (Christophe )christophe [dot] planasec [dot] europa [dot] eu (subject: Download%20the%20GAP%20software) (Planas))