- DOI: 10.1080/13658816.2015.1051486, ISSN: 1365-8816, URL: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC91701, URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13658816.2015.1051486, JRC nr: JRC91701
- Дата на публикуване
- 9 Юли 2015 г.
The main topic of this paper is modelling the spatial allocation of 2nd generation feedstock
(lignocellulosic crops) under a reference policy scenario in Europe. The Land Use Modelling
Platform (LUISA) has been used in order to simulate the land use changes from 2010 to 2050. The
configuration of LUISA is detailed, highlighting the biophysical suitability aspects of two main
energy crops groups: herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic crops. A suitability map for each
energy crop was generated using multicriteria analysis (MCA). Biophysical factors (climate, soil
properties and topographical aspects), natural and artificial constraints and location-specific
land categories were defined as relevant components within the platform. A sensitivity analysis
of the set of selected factors was then applied. The sensitive analysis provide insight into the
most influent factors on the model, highlighting temperature, precipitation, length growing period
and frost free days. The results of modelling 2nd generation feedstock in LUMP clearly reflected
the significant renewable energy contribution from energy crops in EU-28, which was estimated
in the range between 12.25 PJ/year (in 2020) and 33.18 PJ/year (in 2050). The aggregated
results of 2nd generation feedstock per NUTS3 level were mapped to show the energy crop land
allocation trend and to identify the regions where its demand is significantly high such as
Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland.
NOTE: The former acronym 'LUMP' is used in the paper instead of 'LUISA', due to the timing of submission and revision of the paper.
PERPI?A CASTILLO Carolina, LAVALLE Carlo, BARANZELLI Claudia, MUBAREKA Sarah
TAYLOR \& FRANCIS LTD