Calibrating the CAPRI and ESIM models to the mid-term commodity market outlook of the European Commission

JRC-IPTS maintains a suite of large scale economic models, the Integrated Modelling Platform for Agroeconomic Commodity and Policy Analysis (iMAP), in order to contribute to the impact assessment of agricultural and trade policies of the European Commission. Operating a modelling platform requires the calibration of the included models to the same point of departure. The current report describes how two of the partial equilibrium models of the iMAP platform, CAPRI and ESIM, are calibrated to a common baseline. The models are aligned to the mid-term prospects for agricultural markets and income, published annually by the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development.

The report provides both an overview of the baseline calibration exercise (and of the endeavour to calibrate large-scale economic models in general) and goes into practical details regarding the specificities of the single models. A critical evaluation of the 2012 and 2013 baseline exercises, with several illustrative examples, is also included. The report concludes with highlighting strengths and weaknesses of the calibration process and gives suggestions for further improvements. Numerous technical annexes complete the report helping practitioners to understand the observable differences in the models’ baselines.

Authors:

Mihaly Himics, Marco Artavia, Sophie Hélaine

Publisher:

European Union