In today's complex and uncertain world, resilience has become key to tackling hybrid threats. Rather than just reacting, resilience is about being proactive and adaptable, bringing together different parts of society to face these challenges. It goes beyond traditional security by combining strategic planning, teamwork, and technology.
By encouraging a culture of connected monitoring and flexible strategies, resilience helps societies anticipate, endure, and bounce back from the vague tactics of hybrid threats.
European Union Policy Landscape
The European Union (EU)'s approach to hybrid threats has evolved significantly over the years, beginning with foundational initiatives like the joint communications of 2016 and 2018, which laid the groundwork for a coordinated and comprehensive response to these multifaceted challenges. In the face of rapidly changing security dynamics and the increasing sophistication of hybrid threats, the EU has continued to enhance its policy landscape with new initiatives. One such initiative is the ProtectEU – a European Internal Security Strategy, which aims to bolster the EU’s ability to guarantee security for its citizens amidst a complex geopolitical landscape. This strategy outlines an ambitious vision and work plan, focusing on a sharper legal toolbox, increased information sharing, and deeper cooperation among member states. It emphasizes a whole-of-society approach, involving citizens, businesses, researchers, and civil society, to mainstream security aspects in the development of new initiatives, thus fostering a cultural shift in internal security governance.
Other strategic frameworks like the Preparedness Union Strategy and the European Defence White Paper, forming a comprehensive plan to ensure a safe, secure, and resilient EU. Key objectives of this strategy include building resilience against hybrid threats by protecting critical infrastructure, reinforcing cybersecurity, and combating online threats, as well as enhancing intelligence-sharing capabilities. Additionally, the EU has actively sought to deepen its collaborative efforts, both within its institutions and with international partners like North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), to ensure a robust defense against hybrid threats. By continuously updating its policy measures and fostering a culture of shared responsibility, the EU aims to safeguard its democratic processes, economic stability, and societal cohesion against the ever-present and evolving challenges posed by hybrid threats.
Conceptual Framework
In 2020, the JRC and the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (HCoE) collaboratively released a pivotal report titled “The Landscape of Hybrid Threats: A Conceptual Model”. This foundational work aimed to create an analytical framework designed to enhance the understanding of hybrid threats by addressing core questions of who is involved, how these threats manifest, where and when they occur, and the motivations behind them. By establishing this framework, the report has set the de-facto standard for comprehending and analysing Hybrid Threats within the European Union and its Member States. The model proposes a structured approach that aids stakeholders in developing a unified interpretation, thereby streamlining efforts to counteract these multifaceted threats effectively.
Building upon this foundational work, the 2022 Flagship report “Hybrid Threats: A Comprehensive Resilience Ecosystem” was released by the JRC and HCoE. This report advances the conversation by linking security with societal values, introducing a holistic 'whole of society' approach. Recognizing the interconnected nature of different domains, it underscores how resilience-building measures in one domain can influence others. The report emphasizes the importance of seven foundational pillars of democratic societies, which are deeply rooted in trust and credibility, as essential for nurturing a resilient ecosystem. The model presented is strategic, offering the EU and its Member States a comprehensive dashboard to assess and decide on the resources, tools, and measures necessary to counter hybrid threats. This approach underscores the significance of understanding the dependencies and interdependencies across various domains to build a resilient society capable of withstanding and responding to hybrid threat activities
In our upcoming work with HCoE we are integrating deterrence as a key element, systematized alongside resilience, to bolster European security. Based on anticipation, attribution, and retaliation, deterrence is essential for preventing threats by raising the cost of attacks against the EU and its Member States.
Space and hybrid threats
In light of escalating geopolitical tensions and the increasing importance of the space sector, there is a growing need to address the rise in hybrid operations within this domain
As space becomes today a congested, contested and competitive arena, nations face the complex challenge of security this vital frontier. The high exposure of this sector face to its pan-enabling role in other domains, underscores the need for both resilience and deterrence requirements to be addressed in a comprehensive fashion to shield the space sector from the incidence of hybrid threats.
Against this background, JRC aims to support EU institutions and national authorities by improving collective awareness on resilience requirements for the space sector and in time support the coherent articulation of an integrated/coordinated posture to counter hybrid threats in the space domain. By concentrating on the centrality of the space-based ecosystem, we seek to ensure the preservation of national security, a stable economy, and essential societal functions, all of which are threatened by the rise and the intensification of hybrid operations.
Furthermore, the objectives of this initiative include influencing decision-making processes and improving coordination and response capacities among EU institutions and national authorities. By identifying regulatory and governance gaps, we aim to formulate evidence-based policy recommendations to protect the EU's space-based ecosystem. This effort is not solely about safeguarding strategic interests but also about empowering stakeholders with the tools and knowledge needed to withstand and counteract hybrid threat interferences.
HyThink tool
Hybrid threats have increasingly dominated the security landscape of the EU in recent years, with campaigns intensifying and expected to rise. These threats encompass acts of sabotage targeting critical infrastructure, cyberattacks, election interference, disinformation, and the weaponization of migration. In their early stages, hybrid threats are challenging to detect and attribute due to their low visibility. Their cross-sectoral nature and the actors' ability to employ a wide array of tools further complicate their detection. However, early identification is crucial, as it allows the targeted state to activate countermeasures that remain effective.
To enhance the detection of hybrid threat activities, JRC is leveraging existing open-source intelligence. By processing this intelligence through our Comprehensive Resilience Ecosystem (CORE) model, we can analyse cases and compile a dataset of hybrid threat incidents. This dataset can help identify adversary patterns and connect seemingly unrelated events. The use of AI can improve data processing efficiency, enabling analysts to handle a larger volume of inputs and more effectively identify hybrid threats. We are currently developing the HYTHINK tool to address this need, offering a sophisticated system for compiling, categorizing, and analysing hybrid threat incidents. Event attributions will be based on the JRC CORE model, and AI techniques will be integrated to accelerate the process by increasing data analysis capacity.