About JRC PESETA I
The PESETA I research project integrates a set of high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modelling framework to quantify the impacts of climate change on vulnerable aspects of Europe. Four market impact categories are considered (agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, and tourism) and one non-market category (human health). Considering the market impacts, without public adaptation and if the climate of the 2080s occurred today, the EU annual welfare loss would be in the range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate scenario.
The study finds large variation across different climate futures, EU regions and impact categories. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and higher sea level rise result in more severe economic damage for the EU. Southern Europe, the UK and Ireland, and Central Europe North appear to be the most sensitive regions to climate change. Northern Europe is the only region with net economic benefits, mainly driven by the positive effects in agriculture. Concerning the contribution to the overall effects, coastal systems, agriculture and river flooding are the most important ones.
Publication in PNAS
The summary of the project results and methodology has been published in PNAS: Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Ana Iglesias, Luc Feyen, László Szabó, Denise Van Regemorter, Bas Amelunge, Robert Nicholls, Paul Watkiss, Ole B. Christensen, Rutger Dankers, Luis Garrote, Clare M. Goodess, Alistair Hunt, Alvaro Moreno, Julie Richards, and Antonio Soria (2011) "Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe".
Publication in special issue of Climatic Change
The multidisciplinary scientific journal Climatic Change has just published on-line the nine articles of the special issue about the PESETA project. The articles describe in detail the overall project methodology and the sectoral methods and results for each of the impact categories, as well as the economic integration of impacts.
Final Results Reports
The project has been completed in November 2009. The final report can be found here.
Interim results
EC Communication (January 2007)
Preliminary results of PESETA have been published in the Staff Working Paper accompanying the EC Communication on "Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius. The way ahead for 2020 and beyond".
The preliminary results for the Floods sectoral study are available at: Feyen L., Dankers R., Barredo J.I., Kalas M., Bódis K., de Roo A., and Lavalle C. "PESETA- Flood risk in Europe in a changing climate" ( EUR_22313.pdf)
Green Paper on Adaptation to Climate Change (June 2007)
Early results on the impacts for the various sectors have been published in the Green Paper" Adapting to climate change in Europe - options for EU action", and in its Annex.