JRC develops a wide range of macro-econometric models, to support the European Commission in the broad area of the macroeconomic monitoring and fiscal surveillance. The JRC's research is published in technical reports and academic journals and regularly informs policy making.
- The JRC and the Directorate‑General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) jointly develop the macro-economic model GM (Global Multi-country model), that is used for the macroeconomic monitoring and forecasting in the context of the European Semester. The JRC also contributed to the estimation of different versions of DG ECFIN’s QUEST III model.
- The JRC develops the Output GAP program, implementing the output gap calculation method (EUCAM).
- The JRC also provides Euro Area Macroeconomic Real-time Monitoring with its Nowcasting.
Read more about our work
The GM model is jointly developed by the JRC and DG ECFIN, and it is used for macroeconomic surveillance, monitoring, forecasting, and research.
Nowcasting methods use real-time data, including big data, to quickly identify changes in GDP and other important indicators. Activities are mainly related to GDP real-time monitoring, inflation forecasting, nowcasting regional economic activity
The output gap is one main ingredient in the calculation of the cyclically-adjusted budget balance of the EU Member States which is used to monitor fiscal imbalances in Member States.
QUEST is the global macroeconomic model that the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) uses for macroeconomic policy analysis and research.
Available downloads of several JRC-developed software packages dedicated to econometric and statistical analysis.
Check all the events (coming and past) organised by the Macroeconomic monitoring and fiscal surveillance team.
The team behind the research
Beatrice Pataracchia is an Economic and Policy Analyst at the Economic and Financial Resilience Unit, where she coordinates activities on macroeconomic and fiscal surveillance. Her main area of expertise focuses on macroeconomic modelling (DSGE) primarily in support of the European Semester monitoring and surveillance tasks of the DG ECFIN. Since 2015 she is also leading a JRC team involved in supporting DG COMP in ex-post evaluation simulating the macroeconomic impact of anti-collusive policy interventions.
Marco Ratto is senior scientist leading the project MACFIS (Macro-economic and fiscal surveillance). His current research covers various aspects of macro-economic modelling and related methodological and computational tools. Recent macro modelling projects include the estimation of medium/large scale DSGE models, addressing issues like current account adjustments in EMU countries and in the global economy, post-crisis slump and business cycle heterogeneity, cross-country and global spillovers and the use of DSGE models in forecasting.
Luca Onorante leads the JRC project on Econometrics, Big Data and Machine Learning applied to Nowcasting and Forecasting.
Jan Teresiński is an Economic and Policy Analyst with expertise in macroeconomic modelling. His main area of expertise is related to macroeconomic modelling, primarily in support of the European Semester monitoring and surveillance tasks of the DG ECFIN. He works on maintenance and development of the Global Multi-country (GM) model that is used for the macroeconomic monitoring and forecasting. His research focuses on fiscal and monetary policy, the impact of energy price shocks and open economy macroeconomics.
Adrian Ifrim's research focuses on understanding the links between the macroeconomy and financial markets and how expectations shape asset price cycles. On the policy side, Adrian is part of the team delivering support for the European economic semester. The team Adrian is part of provides economic insights on the drivers of the macroeconomic environment through the lens of state of the art DSGE models.
Luigi is an applied econometrician specialized in macroeconometrics and time series analysis. His main research focus is nonlinear modeling and the identification of macroeconomic structural shocks. In his research, Luigi integrates machine learning and non-traditional data into econometric methodologies.
Contacts
Further information can be obtained from:
- Global Multi-country Model: Marco [dot] RATTO
ec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Marco Ratto) and Beatrice [dot] PATARACCHIAec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Beatrice Pataracchia) - Nowcasting: Luca [dot] ONORANTEec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Luca Onorante)
- QUEST: Marco [dot] RATTOec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Marco Ratto)(estimated versions of QUEST)
- Econometric software: GLUEWIN (Marco [dot] RATTOec [dot] europa [dot] eu (Marco Ratto)), BUSY (alessandro [dot] rossi1ec [dot] europa [dot] eu (subject: Download%20the%20GAP%20software) (Alessandro Rossi) and christophe [dot] planasec [dot] europa [dot] eu (subject: Download%20the%20GAP%20software) (Christophe Planas))