The GM model belongs to the class of New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. These models are core workhorses in international institutions and central banks as well as academic research. Downloads are available below. GM Models downloads GM Model - The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison*Authors: Cardani, R., Pfeiffer, P., Ratto, M., & Vogel, L. (2023)Publisher: European Economic Review, Volume 158, 104556Download the related GM Model GM Model - Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models? Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?Authors: Cardani, R., Hohberger, S., Pfeiffer, P., & Vogel, L. (2022). Publisher: Journal of International Money and Finance, 121, 102509. Latest contributions using the GM model Household saving rates in the euro area and in the US: a counterfactual analysisThe analysis provides a comparison on how inflation and the tightening monetary conditions affected household saving rates in the euro area and in the US.Risks of a renewed energy shock. Contribution to 2024 Spring European Economic ForecastPotential economic impact of wider tensions in the Middle East Contribution to 2023 Autumn European Economic Forecast More previous and selected contributions to the European Economic Forecast can be found below. Description of the GM ModelThe GM model offers different multi-country configurations: the GM2 version features the euro are (EA) and the rest-of-the-world (RoW); GM3-EMU versions focus on an individual Euro Area country together with the rest-of-the-EA (REA) and RoW; the GM3 version covers the EA, US and the RoW.The GM model is estimated using Bayesian techniques, which allows combining a micro-founded model structure useful for policy analysis with a good probabilistic description of the observed data and forecasting performance. Recent extensions focus on macroeconomic nonlinearities, energy price dynamics, and the economic impact of the pandemic.Since 2015, the GM model is regularly applied at all stages of DG ECFIN's Economic forecast. For example, it assesses revisions of external assumptions (such as oil prices) or provides alternative projections such as upside and downside scenarios during the pandemic. It also provides projections for macroeconomic aggregates and fiscal variables.The GM model is used for shock decompositions, for example, to assess the main drivers of growth, inflation, and imbalances in historical data and current economic forecasts.GM-based results have been published in peer-reviewed academic journals, fostering links to academia and the research community.Further info and references on GM model Selected previous contributions to European Economic ForecastContribution to Autumn 2025 Economic Forecasts Model-based assessment of risksContribution to Spring 2023 Economic ForecastsWhich Factors Shape Growth and Inflation Going Forward? Model-Based Insights into the Spring ForecastContribution to Spring 2023 Economic Forecasts Medium-Term Projections of Potential GDP growth in turbulent timesContribution to Autumn 2022 Economic Forecasts Commodity-driven inflation: macro effects and risksContribution to Spring Economic Forecast 2022 Alternative Scenarios on the Economic OutlookContribution to European Economic Forecast 2021Energy PricesContribution to European Economic Forecast Spring 2021The Role of Saving in Determining the Recovery PathContribution to European Economic Forecast Autumn 2021 The road out of the crisis remans bumpy and uncertainContribution to European Economic Forecasts Spring 2020How the pandemic shaped the Forecast Published researchEnergy Commodity Price Shocks in the Euro Area: Evidence from a Large-Scale Structural ModelThe COVID-19 Recession on Both Sides of the Atlantic: A Model-Based ComparisonEuropean Economy Discussion Papers (2023)Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?Scientific article (2022)The Euro Area’s Pandemic Recession: A DSGE-Based InterpretationEuropean Economy Discussion Papers (2021)How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter?Scientific article (2021)Financial spillover and global risk in a multi-region model of the world economyScientific article (2020)The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplusScientific article (2020)The distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing: Evidence from an estimated DSGE modelScientific article (2020)The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the euro area: Evidence from an estimated DSGE modelScientific article (2020)Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country modelScientific article (2019)Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market ShocksScientific article (2019)The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area CountriesScience for Policy report (2017)Drivers of the post-crisis slump in the Eurozone and the USScientific article (2017)Post-Crisis slump in the Euro-Area and the US: Evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model Scientific article (2016)
Household saving rates in the euro area and in the US: a counterfactual analysisThe analysis provides a comparison on how inflation and the tightening monetary conditions affected household saving rates in the euro area and in the US.
Potential economic impact of wider tensions in the Middle East Contribution to 2023 Autumn European Economic Forecast
Contribution to Spring 2023 Economic ForecastsWhich Factors Shape Growth and Inflation Going Forward? Model-Based Insights into the Spring Forecast
Contribution to Spring 2023 Economic Forecasts Medium-Term Projections of Potential GDP growth in turbulent times
Contribution to European Economic Forecast Spring 2021The Role of Saving in Determining the Recovery Path
Contribution to European Economic Forecast Autumn 2021 The road out of the crisis remans bumpy and uncertain
The COVID-19 Recession on Both Sides of the Atlantic: A Model-Based ComparisonEuropean Economy Discussion Papers (2023)
Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?Scientific article (2022)
The Euro Area’s Pandemic Recession: A DSGE-Based InterpretationEuropean Economy Discussion Papers (2021)
Financial spillover and global risk in a multi-region model of the world economyScientific article (2020)
The distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing: Evidence from an estimated DSGE modelScientific article (2020)
The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the euro area: Evidence from an estimated DSGE modelScientific article (2020)
Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country modelScientific article (2019)
Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market ShocksScientific article (2019)
The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area CountriesScience for Policy report (2017)
Post-Crisis slump in the Euro-Area and the US: Evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model Scientific article (2016)
