The Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2024 presents an updated view on the implications of energy and climate policies worldwide on energy trends and emissions, and what they imply about reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement. GECO 2024 presents a set of 1.5°C-aligned indicators in the context of the updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that are due in 2025.
Explore available datasets:
- projections with an energy-emissions model using common socio-economic assumptions: GECO 2024 - Energy, GHG and Air pollutant emissions balances
- economic Multi-Regional Input-Output tables: GECO 2024 - Macro-economic Baseline
- regional and global results: GECO 2024 - Country-level visualisations
Global emissions and temperature trajectory
Current global GHG emissions projections still are not on track to achieve Paris Agreement targets, but there has been substantial progress. Since the first release of GECO in 2015, we have seen an improvement in emissions and temperature projections — from a rise of 3.2°C to the 2.6°C by end-of-century in this year’s GECO. This progress was possible through policy commitments from major economies, along with cost reductions in low-emissions technologies.
Under full implementation of existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and regions’ long-term strategies, the world is on track for a temperature rise of 1.8°C. This highlights the urgent need for more ambitious NDCs. GECO 2024 provides an in-depth analysis of this NDC ambition gap to support the NDC updates for next year’s COP, with targets for 2035.
Four key decarbonisation strategies
Achieving the targets of the Paris Agreement warrants action across four main strategies:
- Produce clean electricity – Power sector decarbonisation is the cornerstone to reaching the 1.5°C target, directly accounting for one-third of GHG emissions reductions by mid-century in the 1.5°C scenario. Clean power also underpins another third of emissions reductions by supplying the clean electricity essential for the second strategy.
- Electrifying end-uses and improving energy efficiency – Widespread electrification and improving energy efficiency are crucial steps to decarbonise sectors across the economy that contribute around 30% of emission reductions.
- Decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors – Sectors such as energy-intensive industries and long-haul transport rely on a mix of technologies, including biomass, carbon capture and storage, e-fuels and green hydrogen.
- Scaling-up negative emissions – It is vital to use the land sector as an emissions sink to meet the 1.5°C target.GHG removals from the land sector account for more than one tenth of emissions reductions globally in the 1.5°C scenario. This is almost as much as what we save by switching to electric vehicles and other electric technologies by 2050.
Economic impact of a 1.5°C-aligned pathway
Reaching a 1.5°C target entails changes across the global economy, affecting everything from energy use in households to transportation. Yet, the overall economic impact of reaching this target on global GDP is limited. In a 1.5°C-aligned scenario, the annual GDP growth up to 2050 is just 0.05% lower on average than in the Reference scenario.
While the overall economic impact is modest, some sectors — particularly fossil fuel industries — experience more significant disruptions. On the other hand, the transition to a 1.5°C-aligned economy opens opportunities for new jobs and growth in renewable energy, power infrastructure and construction.