Crop monitoring and yield forecasting in the EU and neighbourhood

The AGRI4CAST project provides the European Commission (Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development - DG AGRI) with timely, independent, and science-based, data-driven information on growing conditions along the season and with quantitative crop yield forecasts at country level in the European Union and the main producing regions of its neighbourhood. This knowledge is essential for managing agricultural markets, safeguarding Europe’s food sovereignty, and for responding effectively to crises caused by adverse weather through exceptional market measures. The information provided supports EU policies on strengthening Europe’s food security, such as the Contingency Plan for food supply and security, but also climate resilience, and sustainable farming. 

By publishing in-season quantitative yield forecasts and qualitative assessments of growing conditions, AGRI4CAST supports national competent authorities, industry, agribusinesses, insurers, researchers, and the media with underlying data and reliable early yield forecasts. The activity strengthens the transparency of agricultural commodity markets and contributes to global efforts to improve food security monitoring by contributing to: 

• MED-AMIN, a network to facilitate cooperation and experience-sharing within national information systems on agricultural markets in the Mediterranean region, by supporting Mediterranean countries in building crop monitoring and early warning mechanisms.
• GEOGLAM: Provides monthly yield assessments to the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative, which supports the G20’s Agricultural Market Information System AMIS hosted by FAO, increasing the transparency of global commodity markets. 

The MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS)

At the heart of AGRI4CAST lies the MCYFS. This system combines satellite observation, weather observations and meteorological forecast data, crop growth modelling, agricultural statistics, and expert knowledge to deliver reliable crop yield forecasts. 

Text version

The MCYFS underpins EU-wide crop monitoring, policy advice, and rapid agricultural impact assessments across Europe and neighbouring regions.

The JRC MARS Bulletin

The JRC MARS Bulletin is the flagship product of AGRI4CAST, providing monthly insight into crop monitoring and yield forecasting across the EU and its neighbourhood. The content evolves with the growing season and includes:

• Synthesis of main agricultural concerns and impacts
• Agrometeorological analysis (weather review and forecasts, frost kill events)
• Remote sensing analysis (arable land, grassland & fodder)
• Sowing conditions
• Rice crop condition and yield forecasts
• Country analysis (EU, Black Sea area, Maghreb region)
• Quantitative crop yield forecasts (tables and maps)
• Atlas of maps

The crops covered include cereals (soft wheat, durum wheat, winter and spring barley, rye, triticale, maize, rice), oilseeds (rapeseed, sunflower, soybean), protein crops (peas, field beans), root & tuber crops (potato, sugar beet), and grassland.

In addition to monthly EU editions, a focus on European Neighbourhood regions is published twice a year, currently for Ukraine, Turkey, and North Africa, complementing the European perspective with insights into important producing and importing countries in the vicinity. 

Further information:

• Publication calendar of the JRC MARS Bulletins 

Tailored Ad-Hoc Assessments

AGRI4CAST also provides rapid ad-hoc assessments to Commission services in response to extreme weather events or urgent policy needs. Prepared within days, these analyses offer DG AGRI and DG ECHO near real-time insights into weather impacts, crop conditions and yield prospects in affected regions.

Ongoing research and developments

To stay at the forefront of agricultural monitoring, AGRI4CAST invests in research, innovation, and model development. Current efforts include:

• Crop growth modelling: improving and validating crop growth models by integrating new processes (i.e. waterlogging, heat stress) and calibrating parameters and phenological stages.
• Statistical models: improving current statistical methods for crop yield forecasting, also using the subnational crop statistics for EU Member States (until NUTS3 level, if available). Testing and implementation of AI and ML techniques to enhance crop yield quantitative forecasting accuracy.
• Fruit sector support:  Forecasting flowering onset and spring frost risk for apples from March to May in EU27 as part of phenology-relevant monitoring of agro-meteorological risks to apple production.
• Olive yield forecasting: Developing a prototype of an olive oil forecasting system, in close collaboration with research partners from the main olive-producing EU countries, to provide independent in-season estimates of European olive oil production.
• Grassland monitoring: refining and testing grassland models with cut-date information from remote sensing to improve in-season forecasts of grassland productivity.
• Exploring new uses of remote sensing data: Producing global, long-term and near-real-time filtered fAPAR time series for agricultural areas from MODIS, VIIRS and Sentinel-3 products. Integrating timeseries from the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service (e.g. soil water index) into operational crop monitoring and forecasting. Using high-resolution Sentinel-2 data for crop-specific monitoring (at parcel-level).
• Seasonal weather forecasts: leveraging emerging products to anticipate trends in weather well in advance and integrate them into crop yield forecasts.
• Harmonisation of sub-national crop statistics of EU: creation and maintenance of harmonised sub-national crop statistics on area, production, and yield of EU Member States at NUTS 0 – NUTS 3 resolution, currently for wheat, barley, maize, sunflower, and sugar beet.

Further agricultural information

Subscribe to the JRC MARS Bulletin 

• For comprehensive agricultural insights for Europe, explore the JRC AGRI4CAST website, which offers a wealth of information, tools, data and tutorials.
• For global agricultural insights, visit the JRC’s ASAP (Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production) website to access the latest information on global agricultural production hotspots in countries at risk of food insecurity.

Contact

 JRC AGRI4CAST project: EU-AGRI4CAST-INFOec [dot] europa [dot] eu (EU-AGRI4CAST-INFO[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu) 

JRC MARS Bulletin: JRCMARSBULLETINec [dot] europa [dot] eu (JRCMARSBULLETIN[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu)