Digital Decade trajectories towards 2030

This report outlines the JRC methodology used to project the Digital Decade trajectories towards 2030. The methodology allows to estimate the future evolution of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) established by the Digital Decade policy programme. Monitoring the progress of the Digital Decade targets is crucial to support evidence-based decision-making.

Using econometric techniques, we estimate two scenarios for each KPI: the ideal Digital Decade trajectory and the baseline one (or business as usual scenario).

The comparison between the two trajectories provides insights into which targets are more likely to be achieved, highlighting gaps and opportunities for evidence-based policy interventions. The results allow Member States to measure their progress against individual KPIs and strategically inform national roadmaps.

We describe two models to estimate these trajectories:

• for indicators that exhibit a technology diffusion nature, we use a logistic curve;
• for indicators that present an expected constant increase or decrease in its trend, a linear model is applied.

We acknowledge some challenges in estimating trajectories, mainly related to data availability; comparability over time, especially breaks in series due to changes in the indicator's definition; and lack of data.