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References

The POLES model was the focus of or has been used in several articles and reports that have been published in peer-reviewed journals or that were public reports of research projects. Some are provided here.

 

1. Journal articles

Vandyck, T., Keramidas, K., Saveyn, B., Kitous, A., & Vrontisi, Z. (2016). A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: Implications for energy systems and economy. Global Environmental Change, 41, 46-63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.08.006

Després, J., Mima, S., Kitous, A., Criqui, P., Hadjsaid, N., & Noirot, I. (2016). Storage as a flexibility option in power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy sources: a POLES-based analysis. Energy Economics. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.006

Pietzcker, R. C., Ueckerdt, F., Carrara, S., de Boer, H. S., Després, J., Fujimori, S., Johnson, N., Kitous, A., Scholz, Y., Sullivan, P. and G. Luderer (2016). System integration of wind and solar power in Integrated Assessment Models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches. Energy Economics. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.018

Kober, T., Falzon, J., van der Zwaan, B., Calvin, K., Kanudia, A., Kitous, A., Labriet, M. (2016). A multi-model study of energy supply investments in Latin America under climate control policy. Energy Economics, Volume 56, May 2016, Pages 543–551. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.01.005

Veysey, J., Octaviano, C., Calvin, K., Herreras Martinez, S., Kitous, A., McFarland, J., van der Zwaan, B. (2016). Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis. Energy Economics, Volume 56, May 2016, Pages 587–599. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.04.011

 

Lucena, A.F.P., Clarke, L., Schaeffer, R., Szklo, A., Rochedo, P.R.R., Nogueira, L.P.P., Daenzer, K., Gurgel, A., Kitous, A., Kober, T. (2016). Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy. Energy Economics, Volume 56, May 2016, Pages 564–574. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.005

 

van Ruijven, B.J., Daenzer, K., Fisher-Vanden, K., Kober, T., Paltsev, S., Beach, R.S., Calderon, S.L., Calvin, K., Labriet, M., Kitous, A., Lucena, A.F.P., van Vuuren, D.P. (2016). Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions. Energy Economics, Volume 56, May 2016, Pages 499–512. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.003

Bauer, N., Bosetti, V., Hamdi-Cherif, M., Kitous, A., McCollum, D., Méjean, A., Rao, S., Turton, H., Paroussos, L., Ashina, S., Calvin, K., Wada, K., van Vuuren, D. (2015). CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Volume 90, Issue PA, January 01, 2015, Pages 243-256. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.009

Criqui, P., Mima, S., Menanteau, P., Kitous, A. (2015). Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: An assessment with the POLES model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Volume 90, Issue PA, January 01, 2015, Pages 119-136. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.05.005

Kriegler, E. , Petermann, N., Krey, V., Schwanitz, V.J., Luderer, G., Ashina, S., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Kitous, A., Méjean, A., Paroussos, L., Sano, F., Turton, H., Wilson, C., Van Vuuren, D.P. (2015). Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Volume 90, Issue PA, January 01, 2015, Pages 45-61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020

Kriegler, E. , Riahi, K., Bauer, N., Schwanitz, V.J., Petermann, N., Bosetti, V., Marcucci, A., Otto, S., Paroussos, L., Rao, S., Arroyo Currás, T., Ashina, S., Bollen, J., Eom, J., Hamdi-Cherif, M., Longden, T., Kitous, A., Méjean, A., Sano, F., Schaeffer, M., Wada, K., Capros, P., P. van Vuuren, D., Edenhofer, O. (2015). Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Volume 90, Issue PA, January 01, 2015, Pages 24-44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.021

Matzenberger, J., Kranzl, L., Tromborg, E., Junginger, M., Daioglou, V., Sheng Goh, C., Keramidas, K. (2015). Future perspectives of international bioenergy trade. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Volume 43, March 2015, Pages 926-941. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.10.106

Riahi, K., Kriegler, E., Johnson, N., Bertram, C., den Elzen, M., Eom, J., Schaeffer, M., Edmonds, J., Isaac, M., Krey, V., Longden, T., Luderer, G., Méjean, A., McCollum, D.L., Mima, S., Turton, H., van Vuuren, D.P., Wada, K., Bosetti, V., Capros, P., Criqui, P., Hamdi-Cherif, M., Kainuma, M., Edenhofer, O. (2015). Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Volume 90, Issue PA, January 01, 2015, Pages 8-23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016

Andrews-Speed, P., van der Linde, C., Keramidas, K. (2014). Conflict and cooperation over access to energy: Implications for a low-carbon future. Futures. Volume 58, April 2014, Pages 103-114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.12.007

Duscha, V., Schumacher, K., Schleich, J., Buisson, P. (2014). Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power. Climate Policy. Volume 14, Issue 3, May 2014, Pages 327-352. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.852018

Griffin, B., Buisson, P., Criqui, P., Mima, S. (2014). White Knights: Will wind and solar come to the rescue of a looming capacity gap from nuclear phase-out or slow CCS start-up? Climatic Change. Volume 123, Issue 3-4 (Special Issue: "The EMF27 Study on Global Technology and Climate Policy Strategies"), April 2014, Pages 623-635. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0963-5

Kranzl, L., Daioglou, V., Faaij, A., Junginger, M., Keramidas, K., Matzenberger, J., Tromborg, E. (2014). Medium and long-term perspectives of international bioenergy trade. Chapter in Junginger M. et al. (eds.), International Bioenergy Trade: History, status & outlook on securing sustainable bioenergy supply, demand and markets. Lecture Notes in Energy. Volume 17, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 173-189. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6982-3_8

Le Strat, F., Pelourdeau, E., Peluchon, B., Caneill, J.-Y., Arsalane, Y., Keramidas, K. (2014). Interactions between CO2 and RES targets: A cost assessment of European Energy Climate Policies with POLES model. Les Cahiers de la Chaire Economie du Climat Working Paper Series, n°2014-04. Available at: http://www.chaireeconomieduclimat.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/14-03-Cahier-R-2014-04-Le-Strat-et-al.pdf

Luderer, G., Krey, V., Calvin, K., Merrick, J., Mima, S., Pietzcker, R., Van Vliet, J., Wada, K. (2014). The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: Results from the EMF27 scenarios. Climatic Change. Volume 123, Issue 3-4, April 2014, Pages 427-441. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0924-z

Markandya, A., González-Eguino, M., Criqui, P., Mima, S. (2014). Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios. Energy Policy. Volume 64, January 2014, Pages 288-301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.046

McCollum, D., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Kitous, A., Riahi, K. (2014). Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds. Climatic Change. Volume 123, Issue 3-4, April 2014, Pages 413-426. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0939-5

Dowling, P. (2013). The impact of climate change on the European energy system. Energy Policy. Volume 60, September 2013, Pages 406-417. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.093

Girod, B., van Vuuren, D.P., Grahn, M., Kitous, A., Kim, S.H., Kyle, P. (2013). Climate impact of transportation A model comparison. Climatic Change. Volume 118, Issue 3-4, June 2013, Pages 595-608. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0663-6

Rafaj, P., Schöpp, W., Russ, P., Heyes, C., Amann, M. (2013). Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Volume 18, Issue 6, August 2013, Pages 801-824. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9390-6

Criqui, P., Kitous, A. (2012). 2010-2020: A decisive decade for the future of the world climate [2010-2020 : une décennie décisive pour l'avenir du climat planétaire]. Economie Appliquée, Presses de l'ISMEA, 2012, LXV (n° 2, "Questions pour Rio+20"), Pages 47-76. Available at: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00709938/

Criqui, P., Mima, S. (2012). European climate-energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis. Energy Policy. Volume 41, February 2012, Pages 827-842. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.061

Dowling, P., Russ, P. (2012). The benefit from reduced energy import bills and the importance of energy prices in GHG reduction scenarios. Energy Economics. Volume 34, Supplement 3 (The Asia Modeling Exercise: Exploring the Role of Asia in Mitigating Climate Change), December 2012, Pages S429-S435. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.12.010

Wiesenthal, T., Mercier, A., Schade, B., Petric, H., Dowling, P. (2012). A model-based assessment of the impact of revitalised R&D investments on the European power sector. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Volume 16, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 105-112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2011.07.139

Flachsland, C., Brunner, S., Edenhofer, O., Creutzig, F. (2011). Climate policies for road transport revisited (II): Closing the policy gap with cap-and-trade. Energy Policy. Volume 39, Issue 4, April 2011. Pages 2100-2110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.01.053

van Vuuren, D.P., Isaac, M., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Arnell, N., Barker, T., Criqui, P., Berkhout, F., Hilderink, H., Hinkel, J., Hof, A., Kitous, A., Kram, T., Mechler, R., Scrieciu, S. (2011). The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Global Environmental Change. Volume 21, Issue 2, May 2011, Pages 575-591. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.11.003

Edenhofer, O., Knopf, B., Barker, T., Baumstark, L., Bellevrat, E., Chateau, B., Criqui, P., Isaac, M., Kitous, A., Kypreos, S., Leimbach, M., Lessmann, K., Magné, B., Scrieciu, Š., Turton, H., Van Vuuren, D.P. (2010). The economics of low stabilization: Model comparison of mitigation strategies and costs. Energy Journal. Volume 31, Special Issue (Special Issue 1: The Economics of Low Stabilization), 2010, Pages 11-48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-2

Kitous, A., Criqui, P., Bellevrat, E., Chateau, B. (2010). Transformation patterns of the worldwide energy system - Scenarios for the century with the POLES model. Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE), Cleveland, Ohio, USA. Volume 31, Special Issue (Special Issue 1: The Economics of Low Stabilization), 2010, Pages 49-82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-3

Van Vuuren, D.P., Bellevrat, E., Kitous, A., Isaac, M. (2010). Bio-energy use and low stabilization scenarios. Energy Journal. Volume 31, Volume 31, Special Issue (Special Issue 1: The Economics of Low Stabilization), 2010, Pages 193-222. http://dx.doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-8

Markandya, A., Armstrong, B.G., Hales, S., Chiabai, A., Criqui, P., Mima, S., Tonne, C., Wilkinson, P. (2009). Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: low-carbon electricity generation. The Lancet. Volume 374, Issue 9706, 2009, Pages 2006-2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61715-3

Stankeviciute, L., Criqui, P. (2008). Energy and climate policies to 2020: The impacts of the European "20/20/20" approach. International Journal of Energy Sector Management. Volume 2, Issue 2, 2008, Pages 252-273. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/17506220810883243

Stankeviciute, L., Kitous, A., Criqui, P. (2008). The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system. Energy Policy. Volume 36, Issue 11, November 2008, Pages 4272-4286. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.035

Russ, P., Criqui, P. (2007). Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction: The soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models. Energy Policy. Volume 35, Issue 2, February 2007, Pages 786-796. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.03.010

Criqui, P., Russ, P., Deybe, D. (2006). Impacts of multi-gas strategies for greenhouse gas emission abatement: Insights from a partial equilibrium model. Energy Journal. Volume 27, Special Issue (Special Issue 3), 22 November 2006, Pages 251-273. http://dx.doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-12

Criqui, P. (2006). The return of coal and sustainable energy growth: Scenarios before 2050 [Retour du charbon et développement énergétique durable: Scénarios à l'horizon 2050]. Revue de l'Energie. Issue 573, September 2006, Pages 293-295.

Criqui, P. Mima, S. et al. (1999). Marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission reductions, geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings: an assessment using the POLES model. Energy Policy, Volume 27, Issue 10, 1 October 1999, Pages 585–601. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(99)00051-8

 

2. Reports

EC-JRC (2015). Analysis of scenarios integrating the INDCs. JRC Policy Brief. European Commission, Joint Research Centre. October 2015. JRC97845.

EC JRC (European Commission Joint Research Centre) (2015). GECO2015 GHG and energy balances. JRC Technical Reports. EUR 27242 EN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2791/72487

Labat, A., Kitous, A., Perry, M., Saveyn, B., Vandyck, T., Vrontisi, Z. (2015). GECO2015. Global Energy and Climate Outlook. Road to Paris. JRC Scientific and Policy Reports, EUR 27239 EN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2791/198028

Ciscar JC, Feyen L, Soria A, Lavalle C, Raes F, Perry M, Nemry F, Demirel H, Rozsai M, Dosio A, Donatelli M, Srivastava A, Fumagalli D, Niemeyer S, Shrestha S, Ciaian P, Himics M, Van Doorslaer B, Barrios S, Ibáñez N, Forzieri G, Rojas R, Bianchi A, Dowling P, Camia A, Libertà G, San Miguel J, de Rigo D, Caudullo G, Barredo J-I, Paci D, Pycroft J, Saveyn B, Van Regemorter D, Revesz T, Vandyck T, Vrontisi Z, Baranzelli C, Vandecasteele I, Batista e Silva F, Ibarreta D (2014). Climate Impacts in Europe. The JRC PESETA II project. JRC Scientific and Technical Reports. EUR 26586 EN

Kitous, A., Saveyn, B., Gervais, S., Wiesenthal, T., Soria, A. (2013). Analysis of Iran Oil Embargo. JRC Scientific and Technical Reports. EUR 25691 EN.

Knopf, B., Edenhofer, O. et. Al. (2010). The economics of low stabilisation: implications for technological change and policy. Chapter 11 in Hulme, M. and Neufeldt, H. (eds.) (2010) Making climate change work for us: European perspectives on adaptation and mitigation strategies Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

Russ, P., Ciscar, J-C, Saveyn, B., Soria, A., Szabo, L. (2009). Economic Assessment of Post-2012 Global Climate Policies - Analysis of Gas Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models. JRC Scientific and Technical Reports. EUR 23768 EN

Russ, P., Wiesenthal, T., Van Regemorter, D., and Ciscar, J. C. (2007). Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond: Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathway Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 Models. JRC Reference Report. EUR 23032

Russ, P., Ciscar, J.-C., Szabo, L. (2005). Analysis of Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenarios with Limited Participation. JRC Scientific and Technical Reports. EUR 21758 EN

 

3. Collective work

I4CE, Enerdata, IFPEn (2015). Exploring the EU ETS beyond 2020: A first assessment of the EU Commission’s proposal for Phase IV of the EU ETS (2021-2030). COPEC Research Program: the COordination of EU Policies on Energy and CO2 with the EU ETS by 2030. November 2015. Available at http://www.i4ce.org/wp-core/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/15-11-30-COPEC-FULL-REPORT.pdf

Puig, D., Farrell, T.C. (2015). The multiple benefits of measures to improve energy efficiency. UNEP DTU Partnership (UNEP Risoe, in partnership with Enerdata, ECN and Cambridge Econometrics). Copenhagen, Denmark, 2015. Available at http://www.unepdtu.org/-/media/Sites/Uneprisoe/News Item (pdfs)/Multiple benefits of measures to improve EE.pdf

United Nations Environment Programme (2014). The Emissions Gap Report 2014: A UNEP Synthesis Report. [POLES-Enerdata used in study underlying the Report on estimating the energy efficiency potential for greenhouse gases emissions reduction for G-20 countries. Reference (UDP, in preparation – published as Puig, D., Farrell, T.C. 2015) in Appendix 4C.] Available at: http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2014/

Hulme, M., Neufeldt, H., Colyer, H. and Angela Ritchie (eds.) (2009) Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy: The Final Report from the ADAM Project. Revised June 2009. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. Available at http://www.tyndall.ac.ukhttps://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/adam-final-report-revised-june-2009.html_.pdf

World Energy Council (2007). Energy Scenario Development Analysis: WEC Policy to 2050. World Energy Council, London, UK. Available at https://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2007/energy-policy-scenarios-to-2050/

European Commission (2007). World Energy Technology Outlook - 2050 - WETO H2. EUR 22038 EN. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. Available at http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/world-energy-technology-outlook-pbKINA22038/

 

4. European Commission documents

Communication From The Commission COM/2016/0761 final: Proposal for a revised energy efficiency Directive
Available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1485938766830&uri=CELEX:52016PC0761. Accompanying documents:​

Communication From The Commission COM(2015) 81 final/2: The Paris Protocol – A blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020
Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/paris_protocol/docs/com_2015_81_en.pdf
Accompanying documents: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/articles/news_2015022501_en.htm

Communication From The Commission COM(2010) 265 final: Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage
Available at http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52010DC0265. Accompanying documents:

Communication From The Commission COM(2009) 39 final: Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen
Available at http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52009DC0039. Accompanying documents:

Communication From The Commission COM(2007) 2: Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius. The way ahead for 2020 and beyond.
Available at http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52007DC0002. Accompanying documents:

Communication From The Commission COM(2006) 848: Renewable Energy Road Map Renewable energies in the 21st century: building a more sustainable future.
Available at http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52006DC0848. Accompanying documents:

 

5. Other work for the European Commission

2013-2014, DG Environment: Macroeconomic impacts of shale gas extraction in the EU. Use of POLES-Enerdata in the prospective scenarios.Report available at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/energy/pdf/Macroec%20Impacts%20of%20Shale%20Gas%20Report.pdf

2013-2014, DG Climate: Mitigation of climate impacts of possible future shale gas extraction in the EU: available technologies, best practices and options for policy makers. Use of POLES-Enerdata in the prospective scenarios. Report available at: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eccp/docs/mitigation_shale_gas_en.pdf

2012-2014, Intelligent Energy Europe: Policies to Enforce the Transition to Nearly Zero Energy buildings in the EU (ENTRANZE). Support to policymakers by providing the required data, analysis and guidelines to achieve a fast and strong penetration of near-zero energy buildings (nZEB) and RES-H/C within the existing national building stocks. Use of POLES-Enerdata in the framing scenarios for the EU. Report available at: http://www.entranze.eu/files/downloads/D4_2/D4_2-sept_2013.pdf

2010-2012, DG Research: Policy for Natural Resources (POLINARES). Conflict and cooperation for the access to natural resources: raw materials, minerals, oil and gas. Scenarios with the POLES-Enerdata model, report on the Future availability and demand for oil gas and key minerals. Reports: