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Global Multi-country model

The Global Multi-country model (GM) has been designed in 2014 to complement the model QUEST to support the EC in its macroeconomic surveillance, monitoring and forecasting tasks. It is regularly used to contribute to the Spring and Autumn releases of the European Economic Forecasts by providing model-based drivers identification of forecast of GDP.

The GM model belongs to the class of New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models that are now widely used by international institutions and central banks. These models have rigorous microeconomic foundations derived from utility and profit optimisation and include frictions in goods, labour and financial markets.

 

GM publications

Drivers of the post-crisis slump in the Eurozone and the US

Post-Crisis slump in the Euro-Area and the US: Evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model

Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks

The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries

The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the euro area: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model

The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplus

Financial spillover and global risk in a multi-region model of the world economy

The distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter?

Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?

The Euro Area’s Pandemic Recession: A DSGE-Based Interpretation

 

Selected contributions to European Economic Forecast

Croitorov O., Hoffman S., Frattarolo L., Ifrim A., Pataracchia B., Pfeiffer P., Ratto M., Roman J., Teresinski J., Viskrabka M., Contribution to Autumn 2022 Economic Forecasts – Special issue 4.1 Commodity-driven inflation: macro effects and risks, 2022, JRC131493.

Cardani R., Croitorov O., Frattarolo L., Pataracchia B., Pfeiffer P., Ratto M., Teresinski J., Contribution to Spring Economic Forecast 2022: ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ON THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (Special Issue 4), 2022, JRC129552.

Cardani, R., Frattarolo, L., Pataracchia, B., Ratto, M. and Teresinski, J., Contribution to European Economic Forecast Autumn 2021. Special topic 4.2 "ENERGY PRICES", 2021, JRC127216.

Cardani, R., Croitorov, O., Frattarolo, L., Giovannini, M., Hoffmann, S., Leal, J., Pfeiffer, P., Ratto, M., Vogel, L. and Vyskrabka, M., Contribution to European Economic Forecast. Spring 2021. Special Issue 4.1. THE ROLE OF SAVINGS IN DETERMINING THE RECOVERY PATH, 2021, JRC125376.

Croitorov, O., Giovannini, M., Hoffmann, S., Hohberger, S., Leal, J., Pfeiffer, P., Ratto, M. and Vyskrabka, M., Contribution to Interim winter Forecast 2021 - Box 1.3: The road out of the crisis: an update of alternative scenarios, 2021, JRC124313.

Ratto, M., Pfeiffer, P., Vogel, L., Calès, L., Cardani, R., Croitorov, O., Di Dio, F., Frattarolo, L., Giovannini, M., Hohberger, S., Leal, J. and Vyskrabka, M., Contribution to European Economic Forecasts, Autumn 2020, Institutional Paper 136 Special Issue 3.1. The road out of the crisis remans bumpy and uncertain [pages 61-65], 2020, JRC122385.

Croitorov, O., Frattarolo, L., Pataracchia, B. and Ratto, M., Contribution to European Economic Forecasts - Spring 2020, Chapter 3 “Special issues”, Special issue 1 “How the pandemic shaped the Forecast”. (pp.65-72), 2020, JRC120694.

Calès, L., Cardani, R., Croitorov, O., Di Dio, F., Frattarolo, L., Giovannini, M., Hohberger, S., Pataracchia, B. and Ratto, M., Contribution to European Economic Forecast - Spring 2019. Chapter 1 "Putting the forecast into perspective: the weakness in manufacturing in the euro area - Fading external drivers of euro area growth" and Box I.1 "Looking at euro area GDP growth in 2019 thorugh the lens of an estimated model"., 2019, JRC116947.

Croitorov, O., Di Dio, F., Giovannini, M., Hohberger, S. and Ratto, M., Contributions to European Economic Forecast - Autumn 2018. "Box I.1: How resilient is the economy to oil price shocks", "Box I.3: Euro area GDP growth drivers in 2019 - analysis using a structural model", and support to sections on "Member States" (IT-FR)., 2018, JRC114109.