JRC science for energy resilience

Overview

Energy prices have risen sharply in recent years. The 2022 gas supply shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, together with subsequent geopolitical tensions, exposed the EU’s over-dependency on imported fossil fuels. This dependency can contribute to price volatility, leading to high costs for households and industries, particularly for the energy-intensive ones. 

The EU has responded by setting out a series of actions to boost electrification, accelerate the shift to homegrown energy, and strengthen energy grids.

What the JRC is doing

The JRC actively supports the EU’s path to  low-carbon, home-grown energy by

• analysing the current operation of energy systems
• modelling future energy and industrial systems
• tracking the development of emerging clean technologies and market uptake

This page sets out what the JRC’s research shows about electrification, clean energy sources, and grids.

Electrification of the energy used in buildings, transport and industry is crucial to meet the EU’s climate targets, as all three sectors are major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters, heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels. Stepping up electricity generation within Europe will reinforce the efficiency of the energy system, make the EU less dependent on external energy supply and ultimately benefit consumers.

Markets balance electricity supply and demand – they support power system operations and developments by distributing costs and benefits among players, including producers and consumers. The JRC studies the design and evolution of electricity markets.

Shifting the European economy away from fossil fuels means radically scaling up clean electricity generation. JRC projections show that the total electricity demand will more than double from 2023 to 2050, jumping from 2597 TWh to 5816 TWh, to fulfil the EU's goal of net zero emissions.

This requires an unprecedented upscale of solar photovoltaic (PV), and onshore and offshore wind, which together would reach 80% of total capacity. The projections show that hydropower and nuclear would remain at stable levels. 

Multiple JRC studies relying on the  Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS) – demonstrate the vast potential of greater photovoltaic application 

• rooftop solar on the EU’s 271 million buildings could meet 40% of Europe’s electricity needs
• photovoltaics on a mere 1% of EU utilised agricultural area could surpass the EU’s 2030 targets for solar electricity generation
• innovative, east- and west-facing vertical bifacial photovoltaic systems could stabilise prices on the energy market
• large-scale deployment of vertical solar panels along Europe's major roads and railways could cover 55% of the EU's total solar PV capacity target set for 2030

Wind energy is a success story with plenty more room to grow. An analysis of the EU’s wind energy potential at 1 km2 spatial resolution, carried out by the JRC-run Energy and Industry Geography Lab, found that a substantial proportion of onshore wind potential remains completely untapped. 

The EU has the manufacturing capacity to build 62% of the wind components it needs for 2030, far beyond the 40% required by the Net-Zero Industry Act.

Nuclear technologies provide around 23% of the EU’s electricity and support about 500,000 jobs. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), are innovative technologies smaller in size and output, producing roughly a third (up to 7.2 million kWh per day) of output compared to large nuclear plants (24 million kWh). Offering greater flexibility in site selection, they can help deliver reliable, low-carbon electricity for hard-to-decarbonise sectors.

More than 120 SMR designs are being developed in 19 countries worldwide, including in 13 EU countries. The JRC helps ensure that SMRs meet high safety standards and carries out assessments on safety and security, affordability, and waste minimisation. 

Integrating growing volumes of power from renewables into grids requires upgrades and new connections. These are needed to provide flexibility for the variable supply of renewable power, guarantee grid stability and security of electricity supply, and lower the cost of electricity for households. 

The EU’s electricity network spans over 11 million kilometres, but more will be required to meet decarbonisation targets. Data from advanced modelling show that investing heavily in robust, cross-border grid interconnections has a positive economic impact on the entire continent. 

Batteries are crucial for safe and stable supply delivered by energy grids. They store excess electricity from variable renewables such as solar and wind, helping to balance supply and demand. The European Energy Storage Inventory provides an overview of more than 3500 energy storage projects with a total operational power of 75GW and almost 150 GW expected.

According to the Net-Zero Industry Act, the EU aims to meet 40% of its annual battery deployment needs from internal sources by 2030. A JRC analysis shows that the EU’s current manufacturing capacity of batteries already covers 21.4% of the estimated 2030 demand, putting the bloc on track. However, the sector still requires support to overcome challenges like high costs and raw material constraints.