This issue of the Bulletin contains novel elements, such as tabulated yield and production forecasts at oblast level and an appendix on an analysis using Copernicus Sentinel data to estimate crop area and crop phenology.
Regional yield forecast
- Below average in central and western oblasts
- Fair in the eastern half of the country
Country level yield forecast
- Close to the 5-year average, but below the historical trend and well below last year’s record level.
Current and expected above-average temperatures could - depending on their magnitude – further reduce the yield potential
In terms of production, this translates to a forecast at national level of:
- 26.88 Mt of wheat
- 6.66 Mt of barley
- 3.75Mt of rapeseed
About 22% of the forecast soft wheat production, 19% of the forecast winter barley, and 13% of the forecast rapeseed production is in areas that are currently subject to hostilities due to Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Hostilities have also led to a sharp decrease in the area sown to spring and summer crops, which will lead to a lower production of spring barley, grain maize, sunflowers and soybeans.
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JRC MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) Bulletins
The latest information about global agricultural production hotspots for countries at risk of food insecurity is available on the JRC’s ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) site.
- Publication date
- 13 June 2022
- Joint Research Centre