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News article20 June 2022Joint Research Centre

Improved crop yield expectations in North Africa, except for Morocco

The June edition of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook for North Africa describes a cereal season marked by drought until February/March, accompanied by hot temperatures in Morocco and western Algeria.  

drought
Dry and hot conditions prevailed during the 2021/2022 cereal campaign in Morocco, irreparably hampering crop growth and development from beginning-of-season.
© Rostyle - stock.adobe.com 2022

This resulted in irreversible loss of yield potentials in Morocco, while in Algeria, despite some recovery since March, yield expectations remain below the 5-year average. Yield forecasts for Tunisia are set above-average, while the expectations for Libya and Egypt are around the 5-year average.

Highlights

  • Morocco (MA): The seasonal drought hampered crop growth until the onset of flowering and resulted in well below-average biomass formation in most of the agricultural areas, and a high rate of crop failure.
  • Algeria (DZ): Winter crops in central and eastern regions presented a sharp recovery thanks to above-average rainfall in March and April. However, in western regions, the rainfall arrived too late to trigger crop recovery.
  • Tunisia (TN): Favourable temperatures and adequate rainfall since March has resulted in above-average biomass accumulation in the north-western regions. Crop recovery was observed in the central-western regions after an intense rain event in mid-March.
  • Libya (LY): Above to well-above growing conditions were found in the eastern agricultural areas. By contrast, the early season drought in western regions negatively affected crops and resulted in around-average biomass accumulation.
  • Egypt (EG): Cereal growth this season was from average to moderately above-average. No crop limitations due to biotic disease stresses were observed.

Observed canopy conditions

Cumulated NDVI relative anomalies for Marocco, Algeria and Tunisia
Cumulated NDVI relative anomalies for Lybia and Egypt

Yield forecasts

North-Africa yields forecasts - June 2022

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Details

Publication date
20 June 2022
Author
Joint Research Centre