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News article18 June 2018

EU yield forecasts revised downwards

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The June issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe was published today, alongside Ukraine edition of the JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook series.

According to the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe (Vol. 26 No 6), yield forecasts for all winter crops, grain maize, and sunflowers were revised downwards at the EU level, mainly as a consequence of unusually warm and dry conditions in central, eastern and northern Europe. A noteworthy upward revision was made for Spain.

In large parts of central, eastern and northern Europe, warm temperatures, coupled with a persistent precipitation deficit, affected winter crops during the flowering, grain filling (e.g. Germany) and heading (Denmark and Sweden) stages. Spring crops are affected in Sweden, Denmark, central and northern Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Finland. In Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, where winter crops have entered the ripening phase, less-than-optimal water supply combined with high temperatures limited biomass accumulation during the grain-filling stage and caused early ripening.

Abundant and locally very intense precipitation in central Italy and France caused lodging, water logging and increased pressure of pests and diseases. In France, fusarium head blight is of particular concern. Abundant rain in Spain and Turkey was mainly beneficial to crops.


According to the MARS Bulletin global outlook - Ukraine, dry weather so far has had limited impact on winter crops and spring cereals. Yield forecasts for these crops are currently close to the average and depend largely on the weather conditions of the coming weeks. A heatwave could greatly reduce yield expectations. Summer crops are currently exposed to water stress and rain is needed to sustain a fair outlook.

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Publication date
18 June 2018