Early-season drought affects crop- and rangelands in parts of Southern Africa. Favourable winter crop conditions in North Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia.

According to the January edition of the JRC's Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment, the main areas of concern for crop- and rangeland productivity are currently located in Southern Africa, while a harsh dry season is posing problems for pastoralists in parts of East Africa.

Main findings of the January global overview:

• In Southern Africa, development of the main crop season continues under mixed conditions, with improved rainfall in the eastern part of the area but dry conditions continuing in Namibia, southern Angola, southern Zimbabwe, most of Botswana and in South Africa. The seasonal forecast predicts below-average rainfall until March 2019, aggravating the risk of low agricultural production in the region.
• Below-average short-season production in East Africa was followed by a harsh dry season in January, causing rapid pastoral depletion in Southern Sudan, semi-arid parts of Kenya, north-east Somalia and Karamoja (Uganda).
• Winter cereals planted in October/November in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia generally show above-average conditions, thanks to abundant rainfall concentrated mainly in November and January.
• In Central America, postrera season crop production is expected to be close to average, except for a drought-related decrease of 13% in Haiti.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of February 2019.

Further information

• Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment