According to the June edition of the JRC's Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment, late seasonal rainfall in the southern and central bimodal areas of the region and the timely onset of the June/September rainy season in the northern part has partially alleviated the impact of early season drought in East Africa. However, production partially failed in most of Somalia and south/eastern Kenya. In Southern Africa, postharvest assessments confirm generally low maize production (10% below-average for the most important producing countries South Africa and Zambia) and Mozambique and Zimbabwe are the countries most severely affected by a combination of drought and the impact of Cyclone Idai.
Main findings of the June global overview:
- Late seasonal rainfall has improved crop conditions in western and central Kenya, most of Uganda, northwest Somalia, and other parts of East Africa, but seasonal cumulated rainfall still remained below average in southern Somalia and south/east Kenya leading to low crop and pasture production.
- Southern Africa is facing the impact of drought and cyclones that translated into decreased maize production. Regional level supply is stable thanks to high stocks from last year’s bumper harvest, but the maize supply could deteriorate in parts of Mozambique and Zimbabwe hit by multiple shocks.
- The winter cereals harvest was close to average or above-average in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, with the exception of Morocco where drought caused low barley and wheat yields in the Est and Centre.
- The dry season rice production is expected to be lower than in 2018 in Thailand (centre and north) and Cambodia as a result of a reduced area of irrigated rice due to low water in the reservoirs.
- The situation in North Korea has improved thanks to the good rains of June over the rice bowl area, and the flooded rice areas are now similar to those of 2018.
- Low Spring maize and bean production is expected in north and central Haiti due to low and irregular seasonal rainfall.
The next assessment is scheduled for the end of July 2019.
- 3 Juli 2019