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News article20 September 2021

Diminishing yield outlook in southern Europe

This season, the yield outlook for grain maize is particularly positive in France, Germany and Poland
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The September issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe - was published today, alongside the September editions of the Bulletins on Ukraine and Turkey, in the JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook series.

At EU level, yield forecasts for summer crops revised slightly downwards

At EU level, yield forecasts for most summer crops – except green maize – are revised slightly downwards, though remain above the 5-year average. This is mainly due to a diminishing yield outlook in southern Europe. The yield forecasts for summer crops in western and central Europe remain positive and even benefit from a slight upward revision. The outlook is particularly positive for grain maize in France, Germany and Poland.


Hot and dry in the south; rain surplus in the north, east and center

Southern, and south-eastern European regions experienced continued dry conditions, often accompanied by hot temperatures, which negatively impacted the yield potentials of summer crops. This is particularly the case in large parts of Italy, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece, as well as in southern Turkey.

Rain surplus in eastern Germany and in Poland benefited summer crops, but hampered the harvesting of winter and spring cereals, and caused delays to early sowing activities. In Finland, the overly wet end of summer is the most recent of a series of unfavourable events that reduced yield expectations in terms of both quantity and quality.

Rain surplus in southern Russia improved the conditions for summer crops.


Mixed conditions for summer crops in Turkey; positive outlook in Ukraine

In Turkey, the forecasts for winter cereal yields are slightly below the 5-year average, and below last year’s level. Maize, soybean and sugar beet yield forecasts are slightly above the 5-year average, despite a difficult season, but sustained by good expectations in the northern regions.

In Ukraine, despite unfavourable conditions around sowing and harvesting, the favourable rest of the season allowed most winter crops to achieve record high yields. However, rain surplus in southern and central parts of the country is likely to have compromised grain quality. The yield outlook for summer crops is also positive: above-average yields are expected for sunflowers and soybean, while a high yield is forecast for grain maize.

Further information

JRC MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) Bulletins

The September editions of the Bulletins on Russia and Kazakhstan, in the JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook series will be published on 27 September.

The latest information about global agricultural production hotspots for countries with food insecurity risks is available on the JRC’s ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) site.

Related Content

JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe - September 2021

JRC MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) Bulletins


Publication date
20 September 2021