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News article1 April 2021

Bumper harvest in Southern Africa, but high acute food insecurity risk in many African countries

ASAP hotspot assessment March 2021
© EU 2021

The March edition of the JRC's Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment is now available at:

Main findings of the March global overview:

  • The main cereal season is progressing well in Southern Africa and a bumper harvest is expected in most parts of the region thanks to the beneficial agroclimatic conditions. Exceptions are south-western Angola, north-western Namibia and southern Madagascar, where persistent drought conditions have deteriorated crop and rangeland conditions.
  • In East Africa, there is an increased risk of food insecurity for vulnerable populations due to a combination of reasons (reduced agricultural production, COVID-19 impacts). Pastoral conditions are abnormally dry in Somalia, eastern Kenya and parts of eastern Ethiopia. In South Sudan, over 7 million people are projected to fall into crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity (WFP and FAO).
  • In North Africa and the Middle East, winter cereals are in good condition in most parts, except for western and central Algeria, north-eastern Morocco, north-eastern Syria and north-western Iraq. In Yemen, food security conditions remain critical, with more than 50% of the population expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity by June 2021.
  • In Central Asia, a strong decrease in winter cereal production is expected in parts of Uzbekistan, northern Turkmenistan and north-western Afghanistan. In South Asia, prospects are favourable for the winter cereal harvest in Pakistan, and for dry season irrigated Boro rice in Bangladesh and recently harvested main season Maha rice and corn in Sri Lanka.
  • In South-East Asia, conditions are favourable for dry season rice in most countries. In Thailand, shortage of irrigation water has resulted in a lower-than-average planted area in some provinces.
  • In Central America, the harvest of apante season is progressing under favourable conditions. Planting of spring season maize and beans is underway in Haiti under average conditions, but there is concern due to the socio-political situation.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of April 2021.

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Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment


Publication date
1 April 2021