Flooding in West and East Africa; Below-average winter cereal production in Central Asia

The August edition of the JRC's Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment is now available at:

Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment

Main findings of the August global overview:

• In Southern Africa, the main season has ended with a bumper summer cereal output (22% above the 5-year average (FAO), and winter wheat is progressing under favourable conditions in South Africa. In southern Madagascar, more than 1.14 million people are severely food insecure for the period April-September 2021 (OCHA).
• Floods have affected parts of East Africa in August, particularly Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan and the Shabelle river basin in Somalia. Parts of southern Ethiopia, coastal Kenya and southern Somalia are reaching the end of the first crop season with below-average production outlooks due to irregular rainfall distribution. The food security situation in South Sudan and in the Tigray, Western Afar and Northern Amhara regions of Ethiopia is alarming.
• In West and Central Africa, the first season maize harvest is ongoing in the southern parts of the Gulf of Guinea, whereas the harvest of coarse grains in the northern parts will start in late September. The rainy season so far in the region has been characterised by variable conditions. Heavy rainfall in August has resulted in floods in Nigeria, Ghana, Niger and Cameroon.
• In North Africa and the Middle East, winter cereals have been harvested and below-average yields are expected in Algeria, northern Syria, northern Iraq and parts of Iran. Irrigated summer crops are progressing well in Iran and Iraq. In Yemen, despite favourable rainfall for sorghum and wheat, the food security crisis remains due to conflict and economic decline.
• In Central Asia, below-average winter cereal production is expected in the western half of Uzbekistan and in Turkmenistan, northern Kyrgyzstan and southern Kazakhstan. Spring wheat prospects are below-average in Kazakhstan. Conditions of spring wheat and summer crops are close to or above-average in Afghanistan except in the northwest of the country. In South Asia, prospects are favourable for kharif (summer) crops and Aman rice in Pakistan and Bangladesh respectively as well as for Yala season rice and maize in Sri Lanka.
• In South-East Asia, wet season rice is in good condition despite below-average rainfall in some parts of the region. Good conditions exist for irrigated dry season rice in Indonesia. Prospects are positive for rice and maize in North Korea, despite low rainfall in the last month in the south of the rice bowl area.
• In Central America, the harvest of the primera season is ongoing under favourable conditions, in spite of variable weather conditions throughout the season. Rice and maize are progressing well in Cuba. There is concern in Haiti due to dry conditions in the north as well as in areas in the south hit by an earthquake followed by heavy rains and flash floods.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of September 2021.

Related Content

Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment