Severe drought affects summer crops yield outlook in Ukraine

Intense drought had limited impacts on winter crop yields but severely affected summer crops

Spring weather conditions were generally favourable in most of the country. However, as of June, temperatures consistently exceeded the long-term average, and an intense drought affected two-thirds of the country from late June to early September. These drought conditions had limited impacts on winter crop yields, as the season was about to end. However, they severely affected summer crops in all oblasts east of Kyyivs'ka. Spring barley benefited from favourable conditions in spring and early summer, making the yield outlook above average. 

Production further pushed down by land abandonment in non-government-controlled areas

The non-government-controlled areas experienced a significant increase in abandoned land, leading to a substantial decrease in cultivated areas compared with last year. In the rest of the country, the total area of arable land was preserved. The areas cultivated with wheat, barley, rapeseed, grain maize, and sunflower decreased compared with 2023, while the soybean area continued its positive trend. 

At the level of the whole country, the production of wheat and barley is significantly below the 5-year average and 2023, primarily due to reduced harvest areas. Both grain maize and sunflower production suffered from reduced yields and areas, whereas soybean production is expected to increase due to the expansion of the sown areas. The production in Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by Russia was substantially reduced due to the increase in abandoned land and the strong yield reduction. We estimate that of the total production of summer crops, 1% of grain maize, 13% of sunflowers, and 2% of soybeans remain in non-government-controlled areas.

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