This week, our scientists presented a scenario on the future evolution of the EU energy system until 2050, referring to policies introduced before 2018.
It is an important milestone in expanding the JRC capacity in energy modelling. At a dedicated Brussels event, the JRC presented to the Commission services, the Member States and other stakeholders the 'Central scenario' developed with its new energy system modelling tool, POTEnCIA.
This scenario describes a coherent outlook of the future evolution of the EU energy system until 2050 with the policies and measures put in place up to the end of 2017, thus not yet including the policies related to the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework adopted last year.
A description of the main features of the Central scenario is published in a JRC report. It is accompanied by the corresponding comprehensive model output. The historical period 2000-2015 reflects the decomposition of statistical data as performed in the publicly available JRC-IDEES data-box.
The release of the Central scenario marks the completion of an important consultation process that took place over more than a year, involving several Commission departments and national experts from the EU Member States.
The Central scenario results show that both the energy and the carbon intensity of the European economy remain on a declining path in the foreseeable future. This evolution is driven by:
- the long-lasting impact of policies that are already in place;
- continued technological progress and the uptake of novel options;
- structural changes of the EU energy system, that becomes progressively more decarbonised and less relying on carbon-intensive fuels;
However, the scenario confirms that without additional policies developed under the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework, the EU energy and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for the year 2030 would be missed.
- Publication date
- 30 October 2019