High levels of insecurity in West Africa and flooding in Africa and Asia threaten agricultural production

The August edition of the JRC's Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment is now available at:

Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment

Main findings of the August global overview:

• In Southern Africa, the main season has ended with a bumper summer cereal output, and winter wheat is progressing under favourable conditions in South Africa. Humanitarian assistance needs are increasing in Zimbabwe due to the combined effects of a prolonged economic crisis, diminished maize production and impact of COVID-19 restrictive measures.
• In East Africa, good rains have boosted production prospects for first season crops in Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania. In contrast, Somalia’s production prospects are below average and Ethiopia is suffering significant damage due to desert locusts. Flooding has affected riverine areas in the region and flood risk remains high throughout September.
• In West and Central Africa, agro-climatic conditions are generally favourable and indicate positive production prospects for the 2020/2021 harvest. However, conflict and flooding are expected to have negative impacts on agricultural production in various parts of the region.
• In Central Asia and South Asia, vegetation conditions are good and production prospects are generally positive for spring and winter wheat. However, reduced yields are expected in north-east Kazakhstan due to high temperatures and irregular rainfall distribution. Aman rice, yala rice and main season rice, in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal respectively, are progressing well.
• In the Middle East, planting of the next season will start in October-November. In Yemen, despite generally favourable agro-climatic conditions, high food insecurity continues to be driven by conflict, economic decline and COVID-19 impacts.
• In South-East Asia, moisture conditions are favourable for wet season rice and planted area has increased, except in central Thailand. Good conditions for irrigated dry season rice in Indonesia. Positive prospects for rice and maize in North Korea, despite heavy rains and flooding.
• In Central America, harvesting of primera season is ongoing under favourable conditions. Planting of the postrera has begun with good soil moisture levels in parts of El Salvador and Guatemala. In Haiti, spring season production is forecast at below-average levels.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of September 2020.

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Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment