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News article6 November 2019

Floods in East Africa and low winter wheat production in Southern Africa

ASAP hotspot assessment of 06/11/2019

The October edition of the JRC's Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment is now available at:

Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment

Main findings of the October global overview:

  • In October, many parts of East Africa received more than twice the average monthly rainfall, causing floods in southern Somalia, South Sudan, Kenya and northern Tanzania. Although the abundant rains are generally beneficial for crop and pasture production, excessive rainfall has damaged crops in early vegetative stages. Cereal growth conditions in the unimodal areas of the region are generally close to average.
  • In Southern Africa, areas including southern Angola, Zimbabwe and Botswana are still suffering the impact of the summer season drought, aggravated by above-average winter temperatures. Below-average winter wheat production is expected in the Cape region, as well as in Zambia and Zimbabwe.
  • In Central America, weather conditions in the early stages of the postrera season are generally favourable, whereas the region had experienced widespread poor production and crop failure during the primera season.
  • In West Africa, the main season is close to harvesting and production prospects are generally positive, with the exception of Mauritania which experienced major water deficits during most of the rainy season. Pastoral areas in Senegal also experienced drought conditions, especially in the early parts of the season.
  • In Southeast Asia, Indonesia (mainly Java and south Sumatra) has had a particularly harsh "dry season" with less than half of the average rainfall over the past three months. Main season rice planting, which should start in October, is also delayed by the late onset of the rainy season.

The next assessment is scheduled for the last week of November 2019.

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Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) assessment


Publication date
6 November 2019