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News article23 July 20181 min read

EU winter crop yield forecasts revised further downwards

Winter crops and spring cereals in many parts of central and northern Europe were affected by exceptionally dry and warm conditions.
© Ludmila Smite –

The July issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe was published today, alongside the Northern Africa issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook series.

According to the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe (JRC MARS Bulletin Vol 26 No 07), water stress, associated with exceptionally dry and warmer-than-usual conditions, affected the flowering and/or grain filling of winter crops and spring cereals in large regions of north-central and northern Europe. Abundant rain in south-central and south-eastern Europe hampered the harvesting of winter cereals, but benefited grain maize and sunflower crops.

At the EU level, the current yield forecast is below the five-year average for all winter cereals considered, as well as for spring barley and rapeseed.

The yield forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers were revised upwards and are above the five-year average.


According to the MARS Bulletin global outlook – North Africa, the 2017-2018 winter cereals campaign is finishing with above-average yield expectations in many regions of the Maghreb. This is due to the favourable growing conditions created by the adequate water supply and mild temperatures that have marked the review period in Morocco, Algeria and northern Tunisia. Libya and Egypt experienced an exceptionally warm spring, which accelerated leaf ageing and shortened the grain-filling stage, resulting in a slightly below-average yield outlook.

All of the MARS Bulletins can be accessed through the JRC MARS Bulletins pages of the Science Hub.

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JRC MARS Bulletins


Publication date
23 July 2018