Climate risks in East Africa and Latin America; bumper crops in Southern Africa and Asia

Main findings of the July global overview

1. Southern Africa’s aggregate cereal production is estimated at 43.4 million tonnes, nearly 10% above the five-year average. South Africa expects a 10% increase in maize output (compared to the 5-year average), while Zambia forecasts a record-high harvest of 4.94 million tonnes of maize, and Zimbabwe anticipates a 2% rise compared to the previous season. Conversely, prolonged dryness in Angola and flooding in Mozambique have reduced local yields. Adequate rainfall also boosted regional livestock production. Meanwhile, South Africa completed winter wheat sowing under favourable conditions.
2. East Africa faces escalating agricultural threats as worsening July heatwaves and dry spells combine with intensifying El Niño conditions. Inland and northern areas, including Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia, expect prolonged drought. Seasonal forecasts from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service predict below-average rainfall through September, further devastating crop production. In conflict-torn zones like Sudan and South Sudan, persistent violence, displacement, and market disruptions exacerbate the crisis. Consequently, millions face acute food insecurity, with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) warning of high famine risks across 14 areas across North Darfur, South Darfur, and South Kordofan unless humanitarian aid scales up immediately. 
3. In West Africa, thanks to March rains, main-season maize biomass in southern bimodal areas remains good ahead of the August harvest. Although the Sahelian rainy season started in June, significant deficits in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso have delayed the start of the cropping season. Moreover, poor biomass conditions are observed in Nigeria and Chad. This compounds food insecurity for 54.8 million people already facing conflict and climate shocks (Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG)). Furthermore, drier-than-average conditions are forecast across most of the Sahel through September, worsening prospects for pastoralists. 
4. In the Middle East, winter cereals output and rice prospects are generally good following improved rainfall, despite localized water shortages for winter cereals in southern Iraq and central Iran. North Africa reports a strong recovery after years of poor harvests, with wheat production in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia projected to rise significantly despite initial delays and localized flooding in Morocco. Conversely, Yemen faces challenges as critical sorghum and millet crops suffer from persistent rainfall deficits. Amid these dry conditions, ongoing conflict and economic crises leave 17 million people facing severe food insecurity.
5. Central Asia reports good winter cereal prospects thanks to high biomass. Afghanistan’s harvest outlook is positive following consistent rainfall, though 14 million people face severe food insecurity due to socio economic conditions and recurrent droughts. In South Asia, favourable weather supports strong rice and maize prospects in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Similarly, agricultural conditions in the DPRK remain favourable, pointing toward positive crop production across these regions.
6. In Latin America and the Caribbean islands, the primera maize and bean cycles are in the vegetative state while South American harvests are ongoing. With the onset of El Niño, the region faces two contrasting climate scenarios: severe heat and drought causing major crop losses in the Central American Dry Corridor, the Caribbean, and parts of northern South America alongside an elevated risk of flooding and landslides on the South American Pacific coast and parts of the Andean region. This scenario compounds existing challenges, including high production costs and severe agricultural crises in Cuba and Haiti. 

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of August 2026.